Coinbase has launched prediction markets for customers across the United States, opening access to event-based trading tied to real-world outcomes such as elections, sports competitions, economic data, and entertainment events. The feature, first revealed in December, marks the first time the crypto exchange has made prediction markets available to its full U.S. user base and reflects a broader effort to expand beyond traditional cryptocurrency trading.

The new markets were developed through a partnership with Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market operator recently valued at $11 billion. Coinbase confirmed the nationwide availability in a post on X, quoted by Coindesk, with the rollout coinciding with heightened interest ahead of major sporting events, including the Super Bowl. Customers can participate directly through the main Coinbase app without moving funds to third-party platforms.

Nationwide Access Integrated Into the Coinbase App

Coinbase completed a phased rollout that culminated in availability across all 50 states. The company initially tested prediction markets in select regions toward the end of 2025, using that period to assess demand and platform stability. After observing consistent performance and increasing engagement, Coinbase removed geographic restrictions and activated the feature for all eligible U.S. users.

Prediction markets now appear alongside existing crypto and cash tools within the same dashboard. This structure allows users to manage digital assets and event-linked contracts from a single interface. According to Coinbase, keeping activity within its app supports a smoother experience and aligns with its longer-term plan to broaden regulated financial offerings.

Users can trade outcome-based contracts using USD or USDC, with entry points starting at $1. Each contract is structured around a binary result, allowing participants to buy positions labeled “yes” or “no” on a specific outcome. Prices fluctuate between $0 and $1 and reflect the market’s implied probability. Winning contracts settle at $1, while unsuccessful positions expire with no value.

Kalshi’s Role and the Regulatory Framework

Kalshi supplies the underlying contract infrastructure, liquidity, and settlement process for all prediction markets offered on Coinbase. The company operates as a designated contract market under federal approval, while Coinbase distributes the product through Coinbase Financial Markets, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.

Through the partnership, Coinbase and Kalshi share revenue in a structure similar to Kalshi’s earlier arrangement with Robinhood. Contracts resolve based on verifiable public data, which is intended to ensure consistent settlement and transparency. Categories currently available include sports, politics, entertainment, and economic indicators such as decisions made by the Federal Reserve.

Despite federal authorization, Kalshi faces legal challenges at the state level. Regulators in nine states have issued cease-and-desist orders or filed lawsuits, arguing that some sports-related contracts amount to illegal wagering without appropriate gaming licenses. Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell filed suit on December 9, and Nevada courts declined to pause enforcement actions on December 16. Kalshi is appealing those decisions at the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.

Strategic Timing and Growing Competition

Coinbase’s expansion into prediction markets arrives as competition in the sector intensifies. Platforms such as Polymarket have reported surging volumes, with prediction markets generating about $4 billion in weekly trading volume in December, according to Dune Analytics. Interest rose sharply during the 2024 election cycle, drawing attention from both retail traders and established financial firms.

The launch also follows Coinbase’s December “System Update” event, where the company reiterated its ambition to become an “everything exchange.” Adding regulated event-based trading supports that direction as Coinbase seeks new revenue streams. Cryptocurrency trading activity has softened, with volumes declining 23% over a recent three-month period, while Bitcoin fell from October highs above $100,000 to roughly $89,000 in late January.

Competition may increase further. Robinhood has announced plans to introduce its own proprietary prediction market in 2026, a move that could end its current distribution relationship with Kalshi. As more firms enter the space, unresolved regulatory disputes could influence how quickly platforms like Coinbase and Kalshi can scale their offerings nationwide.