Kalshi’s prediction markets delivered their largest single day of activity during Super Bowl Sunday, pushing overall platform volume close to $900 million and highlighting both the scale of demand for event-based trading and the regulatory challenges still surrounding the sector.

Across contracts tied directly to the Super Bowl, Kalshi reported more than $500 million in trading volume, with total activity across the platform reaching approximately $871 million. Dustin Gouker of the Closing Line said Kalshi set a new daily volume record of $871 million for all trading events related to the Super Bowl. The figure marked a sharp increase from the roughly $27 million the platform recorded for last year’s championship game.

Record Trading Day Fueled by Game and Entertainment Markets

Kalshi’s Super Bowl markets processed $500,171,547 in trading across sports-event contracts, according to company-reported figures. Activity built steadily throughout the day, with more than $325 million traded less than an hour before kickoff and additional volume flowing in during live play.

The contract tied to the game’s winner accounted for the largest share of liquidity. The Seattle–New England market reflected a consistent preference for Seattle, which traded around a 67–33 split throughout the contract and ultimately settled in line with that expectation after the Seahawks won 29-13.

Entertainment-related contracts played an unusually prominent role. The market predicting Bad Bunny’s opening halftime song generated about $113.5 million in settlement volume, including roughly $81 million traded on Super Bowl Sunday alone. Other novelty markets also drew substantial attention. Contracts tied to Super Bowl advertisers produced about $72.2 million in trading, while the game’s MVP market generated approximately $52.2 million. Traditional player and game statistic props accounted for around $66 million, a comparatively smaller share of overall activity.

Platform Strain and User Experience Challenges

The surge in activity around kickoff placed strain on Kalshi’s systems. A significant number of users reported delays, including issues where deposited funds did not appear in the app in time to place bets. Kalshi founder Luana Lopes Lara acknowledged delays on X, though the platform avoided a complete outage. Slowness persisted at points during the day, reflecting the challenges of handling peak demand during a single, high-profile event.

Despite those issues, Kalshi’s volume would likely have been higher if the game had remained closer, according to observers tracking the markets. Even with the technical friction, the platform delivered its strongest performance to date.

Robinhood Participation and Legal Pressures

Kalshi was not alone in seeing elevated Super Bowl interest. Robinhood reported $258,692,694 in trading volume tied to the game, along with $2.4 million in trades related to predicting which songs Bad Bunny would perform during halftime.

The strong results arrived as both companies continue to face legal scrutiny. Kalshi remains involved in roughly 19 federal lawsuits that focus on who has authority to regulate sports event contracts. In Massachusetts, Superior Court Judge Christopher K. Barry-Smith denied Kalshi’s motion for an emergency stay and ordered the company to geofence the state within 30 days to block trading on sports event contracts. The window allows time for an appeal.

A Kalshi spokesperson responded to the ruling, stating: “We respect the Commonwealth and its courts, but we continue to believe federal law governs our federally licensed exchange. We will stay the course and fight for that belief.”

Prediction market operators argue that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds exclusive authority under the Commodity Exchange Act, while state gaming regulators contend that the contracts should follow the same regulatory framework as sports betting.

What Comes After Football Season

With the NFL season complete, attention shifts to whether Kalshi can retain users gained over the past several months. March Madness looms as another major test, having driven significant activity last year. Beyond that, late spring and summer typically bring slower periods for U.S. sportsbooks, though the World Cup in North America is expected to provide another boost.

The broader question centers on whether prediction markets can sustain engagement beyond marquee sports events. Kalshi’s Super Bowl performance showed strong appetite for entertainment and novelty contracts alongside traditional outcomes, offering a glimpse of how the platform could expand activity across a wider range of events in the months ahead.