Macau’s casino operators entered the fourth quarter of 2025 with considerable event-driven expenses that weighed on operating leverage despite expectations of year-on-year earnings growth. Analyst updates pointed to increased spending tied to the NBA China Games, the 15th National Games and adjustments linked to satellite casino closures as key contributors to higher operating costs across the integrated resort sector.

Event-Linked Spending Shapes Quarterly Performance

Citigroup analysts stated that fourth-quarter operating leverage would have been stronger if not for cost pressures tied to major sporting events and portfolio adjustments. “If it were not for the incremental operating expenses from the NBA China Games and the 15th National Games, plus the costs related to SJM’s satellite casino closure, operating leverage for the industry in the fourth quarter would have been much greater,” analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau wrote. The firm estimated industry EBITDA for the quarter to have risen 13 percent year-on-year to just under US$2.25 billion.

The NBA China Games hosted at The Venetian Arena in October involved Sands China Ltd as promoter, while multiple concessionaires provided facilities for categories of the National Games. Beyond venue support, the six concessionaires pledged funding to assist the multi-city sports event jointly hosted by Macau, Hong Kong and Guangdong province.

Citigroup noted that Sands China gained quarter-on-quarter market share but anticipated an 8 percent year-on-year increase in Sands’ fourth-quarter EBITDA to US$616 million, projecting a 1.9 percentage-point margin decline due to event-related spending. The analysts also referenced the closure of satellite casinos linked to SJM Holdings Ltd in the second half of 2025 and the absorption of approximately 4,000 satellite workers into its core business, citing the shift as a driver in SJM’s estimated market share decline from 11.8 percent in the third quarter to 10.5 percent in the final quarter of the year.

JP Morgan issued a similar assessment in advance of earnings season, stating, “There could be more downside than upside risk to our fourth-quarter forecast, given likely higher-than-expected operating expenses spend for its inaugural NBA pre-season games (Sands-specific) and the 15th National Games (industry-wide) during the quarter.”

Market Share Shifts and Operator Positioning Into 2026

Citigroup forecast Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd and MGM China Holdings Ltd as the two largest market share gainers in the period. “We believe Galaxy benefitted from the concerts it hosted at Galaxy Macau and some favourable VIP hold rates during the quarter, translating into a 1.0-percentage point market share increase, from 20.7 percent in the third quarter, to 21.7 percent in the fourth quarter,” the analysts commented, as reported by GGRAsia. Galaxy Entertainment stated it hosted 212 shows and sports events in 2025.

The same note projected MGM China’s share rising from 15.5 percent in the third quarter to approximately 16.4 percent in the fourth quarter due to beneficial hold at MGM Cotai. Sands China was forecast to have gained 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Citigroup also expected Galaxy Entertainment to record the strongest year-on-year EBITDA improvement, estimating a 31 percent increase to nearly HKD4.24 billion with an anticipated 2.2 percentage-point improvement in margins.

Alongside these earnings projections, the NBA and Sands China announced that NBA preseason games will return to Macau in October 2026, featuring the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets at The Venetian Arena. The organization confirmed that the two-game series is scheduled for October 9 and October 11, with Sands China serving as official integrated resort partner and event promoter. The upcoming fixtures follow games played in October 2025 between the Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns, which Las Vegas Sands Corp’s group president and chief operating officer Patrick Dumont described as having “very strong” marketing value.

Dumont stated, “I could not be prouder of having the Mavericks come to Macau and have the team experience the incredible hospitality that Sands properties provide.” He added, “The success of The NBA China Games 2025 demonstrated the strength of the NBA in creating fan engagement and exciting experiences around the globe.” Houston Rockets alternate governor Patrick Fertitta remarked, “Since drafting Hall of Famer Yao Ming first overall in 2002, we have received overwhelming love from the passionate basketball fans of China and built several cherished memories playing overseas.”

The NBA noted that games in 2026 would be broadcast to “more than 200 countries and territories” and accompanied by fan events and community campaigns. In 2025, Sands China launched NBA-branded retail concepts at The Venetian Macao and The Londoner Macao and offered hotel packages that included backstage access to preseason games.