Macau’s casino industry continues to be propelled by the strength of its mass-market segment, which accounted for nearly three-quarters of total gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the first quarter of 2025. According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), revenue from this segment—which encompasses slot machine earnings—totaled MOP43.20 billion (US$5.40 billion), a modest 0.6 percent increase compared to the same period last year. However, that number marks a 0.5 percent decrease when measured against the final quarter of 2024.

Despite the slight quarterly dip, the mass-market GGR was 10.9 percent above the level recorded in Q1 2019, the last comparable pre-pandemic period. This underscores how the recovery in non-VIP play has not only stabilized but also surpassed historical benchmarks, according to Asia Gaming Brief.

Mass Baccarat Establishes a New Norm

The primary driver within the mass-market sector remains baccarat, which generated MOP34.32 billion (US$4.29 billion) in Q1 2025—representing just over 59.5 percent of all gaming revenue in the territory. While this figure shows a small decline from the MOP34.6 billion posted in both Q4 2024 and Q1 2024, it still marks a significant shift in the composition of Macau’s gambling economy. In contrast to 2019, mass baccarat’s share of total gaming revenue has climbed 18.8 percentage points, reflecting a transition away from VIP-centric gaming.

VIP baccarat contributed nearly MOP14.46 billion (US$1.80 billion) in the first quarter, accounting for 25.1 percent of overall GGR. Although this reflects a 0.5 percent year-over-year increase and a 3.3 percent sequential rise, the VIP share is far below its pre-pandemic dominance. For instance, back in Q1 2019, VIP baccarat comprised almost 49 percent of total gaming revenue, and in its 2013 peak, the segment brought in MOP57.8 billion in a single quarter—over 64 percent of industry GGR.

The shift away from high-roller gaming has been reinforced by significant changes to junket operations. The number of licensed junkets dropped from 36 in 2023 to 18 in 2024, though it has since slightly rebounded to 24. Under updated legislation, junkets can now only work with one concessionaire, are barred from operating their own VIP rooms, and are not permitted to share in revenue with casino operators.

Government Faces Fiscal Headwinds Amid Modest Growth

Although total gaming revenue for the quarter reached MOP57.66 billion (US$7.19 billion), representing a marginal year-on-year growth of 0.6 percent and a slight sequential uptick, it remains below the government’s monthly GGR projection of MOP20 billion (US$2.48 billion). The current monthly average sits at MOP19.2 billion (US$2.39 billion), casting doubt on the feasibility of achieving the annual GGR forecast of MOP240 billion (US$29.76 billion).

Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai expressed concerns during a recent Legislative Assembly session, cautioning that a budget deficit looms if the city’s casino revenues continue to fall short. “The imbalance in our fiscal structure is serious, and we must maintain a strong sense of crisis awareness. Macau is a small city, yet our regular expenditure is substantial—and it will continue to grow unless we face extreme circumstances,” he warned.

For 2025, the administration has allocated MOP115 billion (US$14.36 billion) for routine expenditures. In contrast, gaming tax revenue is expected to reach only MOP93.1 billion (US$11.59 billion), which would cover 81 percent of the government’s total income.

Slot machines also contributed to Macau’s mass-market totals, pulling in just over MOP3.27 billion (US$405 million) in Q1 2025. This represents approximately 5.7 percent of the entire GGR and marks a 1.7 percent improvement from the previous year, although it’s a 2.9 percent drop from Q4 2024.