A recent report from Maybank Securities (Thailand) PCL projects that Thailand’s forthcoming casino resorts could become some of the most profitable in Asia, thanks to favorable tax structures and a robust tourism base. The financial institution expects Thai integrated resorts—referred to locally as “entertainment complexes”—to generate substantial earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), outpacing similar venues in Macau and Singapore.

Tax policy and tourism fuel margin optimism:

Maybank’s analysts forecast EBITDA margins ranging between 34% and 49% for Thai entertainment complexes, assuming a proposed gross gaming revenue (GGR) tax rate of 17%. This is notably lower than the rates in nearby jurisdictions: Macau imposes a flat 40% GGR tax across all gaming segments, while countries like Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines apply rates between 25% and 40% for mass-market gambling.

In the report, Maybank analyst Boonyakorn Amornsank stated, “There are multiple factors – licence fees, wages, etc. – affecting EBITDA margins but the largest is generally the casino tax rate.” He added that the relatively low proposed tax structure positions Thailand to surpass regional peers on profitability metrics.

The bank emphasized that Thailand’s large annual influx of foreign visitors—estimated at around 40 million—creates a strong base for mass-market gambling activity. While the country may not attract as many high-net-worth VIPs as Singapore or Hong Kong, it remains well-suited for mass tourism-driven gaming.

Maybank anticipates that legalized casino-resorts in Thailand could bring in total annual revenue of THB278 billion (approximately US$8.39 billion), with about THB195 billion expected from gaming and the remaining 30% from non-gaming revenue streams such as lodging, food, and entertainment. These figures, if realized, would place Thailand among the top four casino markets in Asia.

Further upside is predicted through the redirection of money currently spent on unregulated online gambling. According to the Center for Gambling Studies, illegal online betting in Thailand has an estimated yearly turnover of THB155 billion. Legalized casino projects, Maybank argues, could capture a significant portion of this underground activity. The report concludes that “Thailand has the potential to rank second behind Macau in terms of the highest GGR.”

Timeline and political considerations:

Despite internal tensions within the ruling coalition, particularly between the Pheu Thai Party and the Bhumjaithai Party, Maybank remains confident that the casino legalization process is on track. “We still believe the process will remain aligned with the previously stated timeline, leading to Senate approval and enactment of the law by first quarter 2026,” wrote Amornsank, as GGRAsia reported, citing investment banking group Maybank Securities (Thailand) PLC.

However, the report acknowledges that political disagreements could delay proceedings. Effective coordination between the Ministry of Finance, overseen by Pheu Thai, and the Ministry of the Interior, under Bhumjaithai’s control, will be crucial for progress.

Some industry insiders have speculated that licensing and bidding may not begin until 2027, aligning with the end of the current government’s term. Still, Maybank’s outlook remains optimistic, framing the entertainment complex initiative as a key economic catalyst.

In terms of licensing, initial costs are expected to be substantial. Each large-scale resort could require investments exceeding THB100 billion, with a proposed upfront licence fee of THB4.9 billion. Operators would also be responsible for an annual payment capped at THB1 billion. Licences would be valid for 30 years and subject to review every five years.

Although the draft legislation does not specify minimum investment thresholds, Maybank assumes that only large-cap operators will meet the financial and operational criteria for participation.

Given the revenue potential and favorable policy structure, the institution suggests that Thailand’s entry into the casino market could significantly reshape the regional gaming landscape.