Investment bank Jefferies has revised its expectations for Macau’s casino industry, lifting its 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast to MOP248 billion (US$31.8 billion). This marks a significant increase from the firm’s earlier projection of MOP237 billion, placing Jefferies’ outlook above government estimates and at the top end of market predictions.

Jefferies Pushes Forecasts to the High End

Analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei credited the upgrade to a combination of high-profile events, newly opened properties, and stronger consumer spending power from stock and cryptocurrency gains. “We expect these drivers will continue to fuel GGR growth for the rest of the year,” the pair wrote, according to Inside Asian Gaming, pointing to the NBA China Games and the Macau Grand Prix as key revenue drivers between September and December.

Jefferies now projects full-year 2025 growth of 9.5%, including 13.8% year-on-year expansion in Q3 and 15.3% in Q4. Beyond this, the bank anticipates moderate gains of 3.5% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

Company-level shifts are also expected. The analysts predict Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment Group will capture more market share through stronger promotional strategies and reinvestment, while MGM China and Wynn Macau should maintain stable positions. SJM Holdings, however, is forecast to continue losing ground due to satellite casino closures and a slower ramp-up at Grand Lisboa Palace.

CLSA Highlights Currency Tailwinds and Tourism Strength

Brokerage CLSA also raised its expectations for the sector, albeit with a more measured outlook. The firm lifted its 2025 GGR forecast by 1.3% to HK$245.7 billion (US$30.6 billion) and increased its 2026 estimate by 3.5% to HK$255.6 billion (US$31.8 billion). CLSA’s analysts cited appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar and resilient tourism demand as the main reasons for optimism.

The firm noted that RMB strength directly supports outbound travel from Mainland China, which accounts for more than 70% of Macau’s visitors. Chief economist Leif Eskesen expects the currency to strengthen to 7.13 per US dollar by the end of 2025 and to 7.10 by late 2026, creating a favorable backdrop for Macau’s gaming industry.

Hotel and tourism data reinforce this positive trend. CLSA reported that 33 out of 38 tracked hotels were already fully booked for October’s Golden Week, with average room rates running 13% higher than a year earlier. September GGR is projected to increase by 10% year-on-year to MOP18.9 billion, buoyed by continued visitor demand.

On profitability, CLSA anticipates sector EBITDA to reach US$8.4 billion in 2025, a 7% improvement from the prior year, and to rise further to between US$8.9 billion and US$9.7 billion across 2026 and 2027.

Government and Market Outlook

Jefferies’ bullish forecast contrasts with the Macau government’s more conservative stance. In November last year, authorities projected 2025 GGR at MOP240 billion, an increase of 5.8% compared to 2024. That estimate was later reduced in June to MOP228 billion, citing weaker-than-expected performance earlier in the year.

Recent market results, however, have outpaced those expectations. August GGR reached MOP22.16 billion, marking the strongest monthly performance since January 2020, before the onset of the pandemic. By the end of August, aggregate revenue for 2025 stood at MOP163.05 billion, up 7.2% year-on-year.

Both Jefferies and CLSA agree that the combination of major entertainment events, property enhancements, stronger consumer balance sheets, and RMB appreciation will keep Macau’s recovery on track. With momentum extending into Q3 and Q4, the industry is positioned to surpass government projections, setting the stage for steady gains through 2026.