Macau’s gaming sector is showing signs of a strong finish to 2025, with analysts forecasting significant growth in December following a solid performance in November. As the city continues its post-pandemic recovery, November’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) saw a notable year-on-year increase, with projections for December pointing to further gains. The region’s gaming industry has witnessed a remarkable recovery, especially in the mass-market segment, which has outpaced pre-pandemic levels.

November GGR Performance Exceeds Expectations

November’s GGR came in at MOP 21.1 billion (US$2.63 billion), representing a 14.4% year-on-year increase, surpassing analysts’ expectations. This strong result also marked the highest GGR for the month in several years, boosted by the conclusion of the 2025 National Games, which were held across Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau. CLSA analysts noted that the late-month acceleration in gaming revenue was particularly notable, with the period from November 24th to 30th reporting an average daily GGR of MOP 784 million (US$98 million), significantly higher than typical results for the month.

“November’s strong showing foreshadows a healthy start to December’s gaming revenue, supported by robust traffic and sustained demand from the mass-market segment,” said analysts at CLSA. With December typically a strong month for Macau’s gaming industry due to the holiday season, the momentum from November is expected to continue. CLSA is projecting a 15% year-on-year increase in December’s GGR, reaching MOP 20.9 billion (US$2.61 billion), with further upside risk given the current trends.

Strong Finish for 2025 with December’s Potential Growth

JP Morgan has a similarly optimistic outlook for December, with analysts forecasting GGR growth of 15% year-on-year, and suggesting that the month could even surpass a 20% increase over December 2024. This would mark the strongest growth for the sector in 2025. The momentum from the latter half of the year, especially in October and November, has largely been driven by high-end segments such as VIP and premium mass players. As long as liquidity remains robust, the trend is expected to continue, especially with easing visa restrictions and favorable marketing efforts.

“We continue to see Macau as a secular growth story, driven by increasing wealth in China and a higher propensity for spending on travel and gaming,” said JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian. They added that December is shaping up to be a particularly strong month, potentially capping off a stellar fourth quarter with an increase of 5% to 6% in GGR compared to the previous quarter. The strong quarter would represent the best performance for the region in six years.

“Growth should be driven by robust marketing and player reinvestment and, more importantly, continued easy money flows, along with unimpeded visa issuance,” said Senior Analyst Vitaly Umansky, Inside Asian Gaming reported. He added that Macau’s growth story continues to thrive due to a rising wealth effect in China, which increases both the propensity to gamble and the willingness to spend on travel, contributing to a stronger gaming market.

The recent uptick in Macau’s gaming performance comes despite the continuing challenges posed by the pandemic, with Macau’s gaming revenue for 2025 still 16% below the pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019. However, the city’s gaming sector has shown resilience, particularly in the mass-market segment. According to JP Morgan, mass-market GGR has already surpassed pre-COVID levels, with growth in this segment outpacing that of VIP gaming. While VIP revenue has seen a faster growth rate, it remains at about one-third of pre-pandemic levels.

Analysts are also noting the shift in market dynamics, with improving earnings visibility and broader investor optimism contributing to positive sentiment around Macau’s gaming stocks. Notably, stocks from operators like Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand in the premium-mass market, with these companies well-positioned to take advantage of Macau’s growth trajectory.

With December on track to be a highly successful month, analysts predict that Macau’s gaming sector will conclude 2025 with strong results, marking the best quarter in six years. As the year wraps up, the industry’s positive trajectory looks set to continue, supported by both solid fundamentals and optimism for future growth.