Macau’s casino market began the year with notable strength in its premium mass segment, according to January observations published by Citigroup. The firm’s proprietary table survey reported increases in average spend among higher-end mass players and identified more large-value bettors than in the same period last year, even as overall player counts declined.

Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau reported that the average wager per premium mass player reached HKD28,424 (USD3,644), which represented a 41 percent increase from HKD20,160 (USD2,585) in January 2025. Citigroup described the result as “positively surprising,” noting that average wagers were comparable to levels recorded during the 2025 Golden Week period. Total premium mass wagers observed reached HKD16 million (USD2.05 million), up 25 percent year-on-year, despite an 11 percent drop in headcount to 564 players.

High-End Premium Mass Activity Expands

Citigroup’s survey indicated that a larger share of premium mass spending originated from the highest-value cohort. Twenty-eight players were identified as “whales” during the survey period, compared with 24 a year earlier. Combined play from this group totaled HKD8.1 million (USD1.04 million), implying an average of approximately HKD290,000 (USD37,180) per player, an increase of 49 percent year-on-year. Six players wagered HKD500,000 (USD64,100) or more, compared with two in January 2025.

The survey’s “Player of the Month” wagered HKD1 million (USD128,200) at the Horizon Room at Galaxy Macau. Citigroup also documented large wagers at City of Dreams and Wynn Macau, including individual plays of HKD850,000 (USD109,000) and HKD640,000 (USD82,100), respectively. The analysts suggested that spending by affluent mainland Chinese visitors continued to support the segment and pointed to a mix of gaming and non-gaming offerings that appeal to these customers.

On a venue basis, Galaxy Macau reclaimed the lead in premium mass play in January with a 25 percent share, compared with 27 percent a year earlier. According to Asia Gaming Brief, Citigroup described the competition among Wynn Macau, Sands China, and MGM China as a “photo finish.” Promotional efforts also appeared to be underway during the survey period. Concert ticket incentives were observed, and renovation work at mass gaming floors occurred across multiple properties ahead of the Lunar New Year period. Citigroup also noted that the Pearl Room at Sands Macao had opened, and the Parisian Macao was hosting a collaboration with popular consumer brand Pop Mart.

Whale Segment Reinforces Citigroup Findings

A separate update from Citigroup emphasized gains in whale play volumes. The bank reported a 72.3 percent year-on-year increase in whale betting activity and a 16.7 percent rise in the number of whales observed. It recorded HKD8.1 million in observed whale wagers versus HKD4.7 million in January 2025. “We think it’s safe to say that Macau does have gaming and non-gaming product offerings that appeal to affluent mainland Chinese consumers, who remain willing to spend,” the analysts wrote, adding that they encountered “multiple huge whales around Macau.”

While survey results highlighted strong start-of-year spending among high-value players, JP Morgan drew attention to the wider mix of gaming revenue and its implications for operators’ earnings. Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian cut their 2026 EBITDA estimates for Macau’s six operators by an average of 3 to 4 percent. The firm shifted its rating on SJM Holdings from Neutral to Underweight and on Melco Resorts from Overweight to Neutral.

JP Morgan noted that gross gaming revenue grew 9 percent in 2025, beating its earlier 5 percent forecast, but EBITDA growth reached only 6 percent. Adjusting for VIP-related variance, EBITDA growth fell to between 1 and 2 percent. VIP share increased to 16 percent of total GGR by the end of the fourth quarter, up from 12 percent the prior year. Within mass gaming, JP Morgan suggested that margin yield may have softened due to shifts toward premium and super-premium play categories.

Operating costs also rose. JP Morgan observed operating expense growth of approximately 7 percent in 2025, compared with normal inflation of 3 percent. The bank stated that non-gaming events, including concerts and sports, supported revenue but weighed on margins. It added that the peak in GGR growth during the fourth quarter and muted margin expansion in recent periods led it to take a more cautious stance. JP Morgan indicated that it intends to maintain conservative EBITDA estimates until further signs of margin improvement appear.