Macau’s gaming sector has maintained steady performance in March, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) averaging around MOP700 million per day in the first half of the month. Estimates from investment banks indicate that the market continues to grow compared with last year, although results show a slight decline compared with February levels.

March Performance Shows Stable Growth Trends

Recent data covering the period up to mid-March suggests that daily revenue has remained consistent across multiple tracking periods. Analysts observed that the average daily GGR for the seven days leading to March 15 reached approximately MOP700 million, aligning closely with earlier days in the month.

This performance places March revenue on track for continued year-on-year growth, supported by ongoing visitation and activity across Macau’s integrated resort sector.

Estimates indicate that GGR for the first half of March has increased by roughly 10% to 11% compared with the same period in 2025. Analysts attribute this growth in part to favorable comparisons with last year’s figures.

Despite this annual improvement, revenue has softened slightly when compared with February. The previous month recorded total GGR of MOP20.63 billion, exceeding expectations and establishing a higher baseline for comparison.

Sequential declines appear across key segments. Mass-market revenue has decreased by approximately 2% to 4% on a month-to-month basis, while VIP volumes have fallen more sharply, with declines ranging from about 6% to 9%.

These changes contribute to the overall drop in daily averages relative to February, with current figures estimated to be about 5% lower than the prior month’s levels.

Full-Month Outlook Points To Continued Expansion

Projections for the remainder of March suggest that daily GGR will stay within a relatively narrow range. Estimates place the expected daily average between MOP690 million and MOP750 million for the rest of the month.

Based on these assumptions, total GGR for March is expected to fall between MOP21.6 billion and MOP22.6 billion. This would represent year-on-year growth in the range of 10% to 15%.

Another forecast suggests a slightly lower average daily run rate of around MOP690 million for the full month, still indicating an increase of approximately 9% compared with the same period last year.

These projections reflect stable demand conditions, even as monthly comparisons become less favorable following February’s stronger performance.

Data from early March highlights different trends across gaming segments. Mass-market activity has seen modest declines, while VIP play has recorded more pronounced reductions.

VIP hold for the period is estimated to be between 3.2% and 3.5%, reflecting typical variability in high-end gaming performance.

Analysts note that entertainment programming continues to support visitation levels. Major operators in Macau have expanded their schedules of concerts, sporting events, and other attractions within integrated resorts, contributing to sustained interest in the market.

Companies such as Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, and Melco Resorts have played a central role in organizing these events, which help maintain foot traffic and gaming activity throughout the year.

Outlook Becomes More Complex Later In 2026

While short-term indicators remain positive, analysts suggest that growth conditions may become more challenging later in the year.

“We believe the growth landscape becomes more complex in 2H26 as comparisons become more challenging and the evident battles for market share intensify,” analysts noted, as reported by Inside Asian Gaming.

They added that performance in the coming months may continue to exceed trend levels before more difficult comparisons begin to affect results.

“In our view, the next two months likely continue to deliver above trend growth, then comps become increasingly difficult.”

As competition intensifies, analysts expect differences in operator performance to become more visible.

“In a slower-growth environment, we believe investors will need to select winners and losers, as operators that grow below market rate or sacrifice margins to preserve the top line will likely be penalized. Our preference remains with operators that lean toward a more premium focus, given our belief that mass reinvestment levels are likely higher year-on-year.”

“Our preferred names remain Wynn and Galaxy, as each should grow above market levels in 2026.”

Market observers also pointed to valuation levels, noting that the sector continues to trade at relatively low multiples based on EV/EBITDA metrics. Some analysts maintain a positive outlook and have identified certain operators as preferred picks based on expected performance.