The Netherlands’ decision to raise gambling taxes over a two-year period has produced far lower fiscal returns than policymakers originally forecast, according to a joint assessment by the Ministry of Finance and the national gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA).

The report concludes that the objective of generating substantial additional public revenue through higher tax rates has not been achieved, with gains falling sharply short of projections despite successive rate increases.

Tax changes underperform forecasts

The Dutch government implemented two staged tax increases, lifting the rate from 30.5% to 34.2% at the start of 2025, followed by a further rise to 37.8% from January 2026.

Initial projections suggested these adjustments would generate an extra €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. Actual outcomes were significantly lower, with only around €2 million in additional revenue recorded in 2025 and a revised estimate of €57 million for 2026 compared with 2024 levels.

Overall gambling tax receipts reached €1.036 billion in 2025, only slightly above €1.034 billion the year before, despite the higher rate structure.

Authorities attribute the gap primarily to a shrinking tax base. The report notes that reduced taxable activity offset the effect of higher rates, although it also acknowledges that isolating the precise impact of tax policy from wider market changes is not fully possible.

The analysis links the weaker-than-expected performance to a combination of regulatory and structural shifts affecting the sector. These include tighter consumer protection measures, stricter advertising and sponsorship limits, and increased supervisory oversight of licensed operators.

New rules introduced in late 2024 placed limits on monthly net deposits, set at €300 for younger adults and €700 for older players. Additional restrictions on advertising were also phased in, including bans on sports sponsorship and television-related promotional activity.

The report also highlights the fading impact of post-event sporting activity, alongside broader uncertainty created by ongoing regulatory adjustments, as contributing factors to reduced gambling turnover.

These developments collectively reduced the taxable base on which gambling duties are calculated, limiting the expected fiscal uplift from higher rates.

Pressure on land-based operators

According to NEXT.io, the land-based sector has experienced notable strain during the period under review. Data from the KSA shows visits to gaming halls and Holland Casino locations falling by approximately 11% year-on-year between early 2025 and early 2026.

Several operators have reduced their physical footprint or closed venues, with some citing rising taxation as a contributing factor. However, the report notes that other long-standing pressures were already affecting the sector, including post-pandemic recovery challenges, self-exclusion mechanisms, competition from online gambling, and rising operational costs.

Because of these overlapping factors, the assessment states that it is not possible to attribute venue closures or declining attendance solely to tax increases.

The impact of the higher tax burden has also been reflected in reduced financial contributions from state-linked gambling organisations. Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij both reported declines in profitability linked to increased taxation levels.

These reductions partially offset gains from higher tax rates, limiting the net benefit to public finances. The report further suggests that increased gambling duties may have had secondary effects on corporation tax receipts, dividends, and other state income streams.

As a result, the overall fiscal gain from the policy shift is considered lower than headline gambling tax figures suggest.

Online market remains broadly stable

Despite concerns raised by industry participants, the regulated online gambling sector has not shown a significant contraction in size. Gross gaming revenue in the online segment remained relatively stable, while the number of licensed operators continued to grow.

However, the report notes that concurrent regulatory developments make it difficult to isolate the specific impact of taxation on online performance. Advertising restrictions, affordability checks, and broader compliance requirements have also influenced market conditions.

The findings are expected to intensify debate over the effectiveness of higher taxation as a policy tool in regulated gambling markets. Industry groups have argued that rising taxes risk reducing legal market activity and encouraging unlicensed operators, while also weakening contributions to public funding streams.

Some operators and trade bodies have also raised concerns that increased fiscal pressure may accelerate shifts in consumer behaviour and further reduce taxable activity over time.

The government has already signalled additional policy measures, including tighter advertising controls, as part of its broader regulatory direction, suggesting continued adjustment of the framework governing the sector.