Gibraltar has introduced a standalone regulatory regime for prediction markets, positioning the territory as the first jurisdiction worldwide to do so. The new framework, called the Prediction Market Regulations 2026, separates prediction market activities from traditional gambling, providing a distinct category within the Gibraltar Gambling Act 2025.

Nigel Feetham KC MP, Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, described the initiative as an effort to “regulate innovation responsibly by providing a clear regulatory framework for operators that wish to conduct prediction market activities under this regime, where it is the appropriate regulatory framework for their business.” He emphasized that the framework prioritizes market integrity, participant protection, transparency, financial crime prevention, and operational resilience.

Scope and Structure of the Regulations

The framework applies to licensed prediction market operators such as ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire, which have already received approvals. Operators must ensure that all event contracts are approved and capable of objective settlement, cannot be easily manipulated, and meet regulatory objectives. Certain high-risk contracts—such as those related to death, criminal activity, terrorism, serious injury, or armed conflict—may be restricted to mitigate potential harm.

The regulations also explicitly allow for the use of digital assets, including stablecoins, for funding participant accounts, providing collateral, settling transactions, and facilitating withdrawals, without requiring operators to be licensed as financial services providers. This ensures that cryptocurrency transactions can be incorporated while maintaining robust regulatory oversight.

Gibraltar’s Gambling Division, under the oversight of the supervisory authority, will manage compliance, enforce anti-money laundering standards, and maintain the discretion to block inappropriate contracts. The supervisory panel has been set up to leverage experience in technology-enabled markets and digital regulation, ensuring operators meet high standards of governance and operational resilience.

As SBC News reports, Travis Geiger, co-founder of WagerWire, praised the new framework as a “landmark moment for the prediction market industry,” highlighting its focus on responsible oversight and long-term stability for operators.

Market Implications

Globally, prediction markets have faced legal uncertainty. In the United States, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are under scrutiny from both federal and state regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) treats them as financial products, whereas states such as Nevada, Connecticut, and Arizona have raised concerns over consumer protection and gambling classification. Several European regulators, including those in France, Belgium, Italy, and Portugal, have blocked operations of prominent platforms due to risks posed to consumers.

By carving out a clear regulatory path, Gibraltar seeks to balance market innovation with consumer safety and governance. The framework also serves to safeguard Gibraltar’s reputation while providing operational clarity for companies aiming to offer prediction market products internationally.

The new regulations coincide with broader reforms to Gibraltar’s gambling framework and come amid shifts in the UK gambling tax regime. Prediction markets are increasingly relevant for the local economy, particularly as the majority of Gibraltar-based operators serve UK customers. Minister Feetham underscored the importance of this initiative as part of a strategic vision to position Gibraltar as a leading hub for digital market innovation under robust regulatory standards.

As of now, Gibraltar has licensed two platforms, ADI Predictstreet and WagerWire, with a third expected to be approved in the near future. The framework sets an international precedent, and its success could influence regulatory approaches for prediction markets in other jurisdictions.