The U.S. NFL wagering market could generate about $40.5 billion in regulated activity during the current season, with traditional sportsbooks expected to retain the majority of that business despite rapid growth among prediction-market operators.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming projects regulated sportsbooks will handle $31.7 billion in NFL wagers during the season. The research firm places the prediction-market handle analog at about $8.4 billion, producing a roughly 79% to 21% split between the two channels. Handle analog provides a way to compare prediction-market trading activity with sportsbook handle because the two measures do not work in exactly the same way.

EKG expects sportsbook NFL handle to rise about 8% year over year. The forecast comes as prediction platforms increase their presence in the sports market and gain access to customers in areas where commercial sportsbooks have limited or no availability.

Sportsbooks Continue to Control Most NFL Volume

CNBC reported that sportsbooks still account for close to four out of every five dollars in the combined NFL wagering estimate. The $31.7 billion sportsbook projection represents growth of about 8% from the previous football season.

Prediction markets have expanded the overall pool of consumers who can access sports-related contracts. Platforms can offer such products in California and Texas, where legal commercial sports betting remains unavailable. They also operate in Georgia. Florida represents another opportunity because the Seminole Tribe’s Hard Rock operation holds the state’s sports betting monopoly.

Chris Grove, partner emeritus at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, said the additional access has helped expand the market.

“Prediction markets are growing the overall market — at least for now,” said Grove. “We’ll start to see more direct competition between sportsbooks and prediction markets by the time we get to the Super Bowl.”

EKG said current data provides limited evidence that prediction markets have taken substantial volume away from established sportsbooks. DraftKings and FanDuel have reported a low-single-digit impact at most on handle growth after launching prediction products of their own. Rush Street Interactive has reported no discernible effect. BetMGM has seen a more meaningful impact.

Traditional sportsbooks also benefit from a larger existing customer base. Their products generally provide broader betting menus and established loyalty programs. EKG described prediction markets as a developing second channel with a smaller installed base.

“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” EKG said.

Football Contracts and App Activity Accelerate

Prediction-market activity has nevertheless increased sharply since the football season began. Selected exchanges recorded 2.94 billion football contracts between September 1 and September 14, almost four times the figure from the comparable period in 2025.

App-download figures also showed strong consumer interest during kickoff week. Polymarket recorded 755,000 U.S. downloads, ahead of Kalshi with 602,000. Those figures excluded Robinhood and Coinbase because downloads of their apps include activity outside prediction markets.

Other competitors are also adding volume. Piper Sandler placed Novig’s latest reported volume at $43 million, representing a 77% month-over-month increase. Underdog reached $26.5 million after recording 80% monthly growth.

Novig has sought greater national recognition through its “Just Sports” advertising campaign featuring actress Sydney Sweeney, who said she has taken an equity stake in the prediction platform. The campaign generated significant public attention and criticism.

Piper Sandler’s tracking also shows substantial activity concentrated among the largest exchanges. On its latest reported day, the eight platforms it follows generated around $2.48 billion in combined volume. Kalshi accounted for $1.93 billion, and Polymarket recorded $403.6 million.

Combination contracts have become another important part of prediction-market activity. Piper Sandler said these products, which function similarly to sportsbook parlays, now account for the majority of Kalshi’s volume.

Sportsbooks already depend heavily on parlays during football season. EKG expects them to represent more than 40% of regulated NFL handle. Their higher margins could make them responsible for about 75% of sportsbook NFL revenue.

Promotions Remain a Key Difference Between Channels

Customer acquisition spending forms another part of EKG’s 8% sportsbook growth forecast. The research firm pointed to larger football-season offers from established operators as one factor supporting its expectations.

EKG said its “above-market growth assumption supported in part by a more aggressive football acquisition backdrop: bet365 entered with the richest sportsbook welcome offer we observed ($365 headline), while FanDuel and Fanatics carry $350 headline offers.”

DraftKings has a $200 headline offer and has indicated that it could increase spending if favorable acquisition economics continue. FanDuel has also said it plans to provide more generous bonuses across the season through its Rewards program.

Prediction exchanges have less room to use large promotional offers because their customers trade against one another instead of wagering directly against a house. EKG cited a $25 offer from Kalshi when comparing the promotional environment with sportsbooks.

Prediction platforms are directing significant resources toward other forms of customer acquisition. Digital marketing has become a major focus, including paid search and app-store promotion.

“That said, channel checks indicate prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and pay-per-click advertising, which could make our forecast look conservative by the end of the season,” EKG concluded.

The current projections therefore leave sportsbooks with the majority of NFL wagering activity for the season. Prediction markets have established a sizable second channel, helped by broader geographic access and rapid growth in contract volume. The developing competition will become clearer as the football schedule moves toward the Super Bowl and both types of operators continue competing for customers.