Light & Wonder has significantly raised its future earnings expectations, announcing during its 2025 Investor Day that it now aims to achieve US$2 billion in adjusted EBITDA by the year 2028. This target marks a substantial increase from the company’s previously declared US$1.4 billion goal for 2025, and outlines an aggressive growth trajectory over the next three years.

Strategic focus: market gains and segment expansion:

During the presentation in New York, President and CEO Matt Wilson stated, “This is a business that has delivered on its commitments, time after time.” He emphasized that the company expects adjusted earnings per share (EPSa) to nearly double within the same period, rising from US$5.27 in 2024 to more than US$10.55 in 2028.

The plan represents a 42.9% increase in adjusted EBITDA from 2025 to 2028 and is underpinned by specific strategic initiatives aimed at expanding market share across both land-based and digital gaming verticals.

To reach its ambitious 2028 target, Light & Wonder is concentrating on increasing its North American premium install base and boosting global game sales. The company is targeting a 400 basis point market share gain in these segments over the four-year span beginning in 2024.

According to Light & Wonder 2025 Investor Day Presentation (pdf), a core pillar of the plan is enhancing performance across its four business segments: land-based gaming, the digital SciPlay unit, iGaming, and the newly added charitable gaming segment. The latter follows Light & Wonder’s acquisition of Grover Charitable Gaming assets from Grover Gaming Inc. and G2 Gaming Inc., a deal that was finalized just days before the Investor Day announcement.

The company also intends to leverage its iGaming content, optimize system capabilities, and further integrate SciPlay’s proprietary engine to boost efficiency and profitability. The focus remains on high-margin content that drives long-term returns, particularly within the digital and iGaming markets.

Light & Wonder reported 2024 revenue of US$3.19 billion, an increase from US$2.90 billion the previous year. Net income more than doubled, reaching US$336 million. The company’s adjusted EBITDA for 2024 stood at US$1.24 billion, showing momentum toward its 2025 interim target of US$1.4 billion.

Challenges and confidence in projections:

Despite a slight underperformance in Q1 2025, with adjusted EBITDA reported at US$311 million, the company remains confident in hitting its year-end target. Potential headwinds—such as the impact of U.S. tariffs on global supply chains—are being closely monitored but are not currently seen as derailments to the broader financial roadmap.

The acquisition of Grover’s charitable gaming division is also expected to open new revenue channels and strengthen Light & Wonder’s hardware and content distribution capabilities in alternative verticals.

As Wilson concluded, the company’s track record of meeting its benchmarks, coupled with its diverse and expanding business model, puts it in a strong position to execute on its new 2028 vision.