Macau’s gaming sector reported a gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP$18.86 billion (US$2.36 billion) in April 2025, reflecting a 4.1% decrease compared to March’s figure of MOP$19.66 billion (US$2.45 billion), according to data released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). Despite the month-on-month dip, the result was still a 1.7% improvement over the same period last year.

Easter visitors help bolster April performance:

The April total marks the lowest monthly GGR since January and highlights the continued volatility in Macau’s post-pandemic recovery. For the year to date, total GGR stands at MOP$76.51 billion (US$9.54 billion), representing a 0.8% year-on-year increase. However, that cumulative figure is still 23.3% lower than the first four months of 2019, which reached MOP$99.74 billion (US$12.44 billion).

Analysts had expected some resilience in April due to the Easter holiday, which brought an influx of tourists. Macau welcomed over 520,000 visitors during the Easter period from April 18 to 21, with an average of around 130,000 visitors per day, according to data from the Public Security Police.

Brokerage firm JP Morgan Securities noted the month’s average daily run rate stood at MOP$629 million, which it described as a sign of strength amid broader economic uncertainty and an ongoing government crackdown on illegal money exchange. JP Morgan analysts DS Kim and Selina Li added that VIP and mass market segments were operating at approximately 20% and over 110% of pre-COVID-19 levels, respectively.

Vitaly Umansky, a senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, called the April results “better than expected” and highlighted a strong finish to the month. He projected May’s GGR to see a 5.2% increase from April, even if down 1.7% year-on-year. “Based on the better than expected April result and in light of what could be stronger May Golden Week, our May estimate may be conservative,” he wrote.

Macau faces pressure despite recovery signs:

Although this year’s revenue has yet to reach the monthly average of MOP$20 billion projected by the Macau government for 2025, some believe the pace could still pick up. CreditSights, in an April 25 note, acknowledged that first-quarter GGR was lagging behind official expectations but maintained that the city still has a viable “path for total GGR to reach Macau’s 2025 target” of MOP$240 billion.

The local tourism sector is expected to play a key role in that growth. Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes, director of Macau’s tourism office, recently stated that visitor numbers could reach up to 140,000 daily during the Labour Day holidays. The first day of the holiday period on May 1 already saw 176,921 arrivals, marking a robust start to what many hope will be a strong May Golden Week.

Meanwhile, Secretary for Economy and Finance Tai Kin Ip voiced concerns during a Legislative Assembly session about the long-term sustainability of the industry. According to Inside Asian Gaming, he criticized casino operators’ diversification efforts and warned that “Macau’s major industries are facing increased competition in the international arena and the risks and challenges should not be ignored.”

While analysts from Citigroup forecast GGR growth for 2025 to land between 4% and 9%, much will depend on whether tourism momentum can counterbalance other headwinds, such as regulatory enforcement and shifts in consumer behavior.