Macau’s casino industry has achieved an impressive performance during the first five days of October, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching MOP 5.5 billion (US$686.1 million), marking a daily average of MOP 1.1 billion (US$138 million). According to brokerage JP Morgan, this result represents the best Golden Week performance in more than five years. The October Golden Week is a crucial period for the gaming sector, as it coincides with mainland China’s National Day holiday and the Mid-Autumn Festival, drawing large numbers of visitors to Macau. Over the first five days, the city welcomed 790,016 visitors, with a daily average of 158,000, which aligned with the tourism authority’s forecast of 150,000. However, the arrival figures were impacted by Typhoon Matmo on Sunday, October 5, when the number of visitors dropped by 25% from the previous day.

Strong Start Despite Typhoon Disruptions

The first days of Golden Week showed strong momentum for Macau’s gaming revenue. With visitors flocking to the casinos, analysts expected the continued trend to drive revenues higher in the second week of the month. However, the impact of Typhoon Matmo disrupted travel to and from Macau, particularly on Sunday, October 5. Official data revealed that visitor numbers fell sharply from 191,176 on October 4 to 113,051 on the following day. As reported by GGRAsia, despite this setback, analysts from JP Morgan noted that the long, eight-day holiday this year compared to last year’s seven-day break would likely result in sustained demand during the later part of the Golden Week, amplifying revenues in the second half of the holiday period.

In a note issued by JP Morgan, analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian stated that although the year-on-year growth was relatively modest at 3%, they were not concerned about the momentum. The analysts pointed out that the extended holiday could help maintain demand after the peak days, especially as visitors who were affected by the typhoon would likely reschedule their trips. They continue to expect GGR growth to accelerate in the second week of the month, projecting a daily average of MOP 750 million (US$94 million), reflecting mid-to-high teen growth compared to the same period last year.

Looking ahead, JP Morgan analysts maintained their full-month GGR forecast, projecting that October’s revenue would total MOP 23 billion (US$2.87 billion), marking an 11% to 13% increase from last year. This would set a new six-year high for monthly gaming revenue in Macau, driven by a combination of factors, including sustained demand from premium mass players and the longer holiday period. The forecasted growth for the month represents a significant rebound for Macau’s gaming sector, which had faced disruptions in previous months, including Typhoon Ragasa in September. Despite the weather-related challenges, analysts remain optimistic about the sector’s resilience and the continued strength of consumer spending.

The extended break has contributed to higher-than-expected gaming results, as average spending from both regular and premium players remains strong. In particular, premium mass players have seen a 6% increase in average bets compared to last year, while the popularity of new baccarat side bets has also contributed to the upward trend. These developments suggest that the market is poised for continued growth, supported by macroeconomic factors such as a stronger yuan and improved industrial profits in mainland China.

Visitor Arrivals and Gaming Stocks

While the GGR performance for the first five days of Golden Week was strong, the impact of Typhoon Matmo was reflected in the stock market, with gaming stocks experiencing declines due to disruptions in visitation. Shares of Melco International dropped by 6.5%, MGM China saw a 4.7% dip, and Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, and SJM Holdings all experienced decreases of around 2%. Despite these short-term fluctuations, analysts believe the broader outlook for Macau’s gaming industry remains positive. The influx of visitors during the Golden Week period, combined with the positive economic factors underpinning the region, bodes well for sustained growth in the coming months.

Looking beyond the immediate effects of the Golden Week, analysts are optimistic about the sector’s growth prospects. They expect Macau’s gaming industry to see continued double-digit GGR growth through at least the first quarter of 2026. The ongoing demand from premium mass players and the strengthening economic fundamentals, particularly in mainland China, suggest that the region’s gaming sector will continue to thrive. As Macau works to recover from the disruptions of earlier in the year, the favorable long-term outlook is expected to translate into significant earnings growth for the casino operators.