Investment banking firm Jefferies has revised its forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the year 2025, setting the new expectation at MOP$240 billion (approximately US$30 billion). This adjustment reflects a 2% reduction from earlier predictions and aligns closely with the Macau government’s forecasts after a slower start to the year than anticipated.

Analyzing market dynamics and visa policy impacts:

This latest estimate predicts a 5.8% year-on-year growth in the gaming industry, a significant figure considering the global gaming market’s dynamics. From March to December 2025, Jefferies projects an uptick in gaming revenue growth by 6.9%, reflecting a promising recovery for the latter part of the year.

Jefferies attributes part of this growth forecast to policy changes affecting tourism and casino visitation. “We expect the newly announced multi-entry visa for Zhuhai residents effective in January 2025, together with the ‘Group-in-Group-out’ multi-entry visa effective in May 2024, to continue to help boost visitations to Macau and mass gaming revenue,” noted the analysts in their review, as reported by Inside Asian Gaming.

Moreover, the firm anticipates that major players like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment will likely increase their market shares in 2025 and 2026, thanks to their substantial hotel capacities and strategic market positioning. Jefferies predicts that the number of visitors in 2025 will rebound to 94% of the levels seen in 2019, which should significantly benefit these large-scale operators.

The expected changes in market share are particularly noteworthy. Sands China’s market share is projected to rise to 25.1% by 2026, up from approximately 24.1% in 2024. Similarly, Galaxy Entertainment’s share is anticipated to climb to 19.3% by 2026, from 18.8% in 2024. Conversely, SJM Holdings is forecasted to see a market share decline, dropping by about 0.8 percentage points to 12.4% by 2026.

Hong Kong-Macau business synergies and investment opportunities:

In related regional economic news, a promotional seminar recently held in Macau focused on fostering investment ties between Macau and Hong Kong. Jointly organized by Hong Kong’s Invest Hong Kong (InvestHK) and Macau’s Commerce and Investment Promotion Institute, the event attracted around 90 Macau-based companies from diverse sectors.

During the seminar, various innovative business models were discussed, such as the shop-in-shop model and shared-use kitchens, which are aimed at reducing costs and risks for new entrants in the Hong Kong market. Arnold Lau, Director-General of Investment Promotion at InvestHK, emphasized Hong Kong’s role as “an ideal platform for Macau enterprises to connect to the world and expand globally.”

This initiative is part of broader efforts to enhance business and trade relations between the two special administrative regions, which have seen robust trade growth, with trade hitting HK$89.1 billion in 2023. The two regions have also strengthened their cooperation through several agreements aiming to boost their economic and financial synergies.

With these developments, both the gaming industry in Macau and the broader economic interactions between Hong Kong and Macau are set to witness significant transformations. These changes will likely influence regional market dynamics and could set new precedents for international gaming and business investments in the area.