As the U.S. federal government shutdown extends beyond a month, casino operators and tourism leaders are warning that the impassecould severely disrupt one of the year’s most profitable periods. The shutdown, which began on 1 October 2025, has shaken consumer confidence, delayed travel plans, and dampened the optimism of a gaming industry already dealing with softer visitor numbers ahead of the Thanksgiving rush.

Federal Deadlock Sparks Concern in U.S. Casino Industry

Nearly 500 organizations across the travel and hospitality sectors — including major gaming operators like MGM Resorts International, Caesars Entertainment, and Delaware North — have joined the U.S. Travel Association in calling on Congress to act. Their open letter to Senate and House leaders urged lawmakers to approve “a clean continuing resolution to reopen the federal government,” warning that the economic toll will be “immediate, deeply felt by millions of American travellers and economically devastating to communities in every state.”

The shutdown is now the longest since records began in 1980, surpassing the 35-day stalemate of 2018–2019. Despite repeated attempts to pass temporary funding measures, political gridlock has left federal agencies without operating budgets, creating a chain reaction across multiple industries.

Nowhere are the effects more visible than in Las Vegas, where gaming and tourism intersect. The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority has reported nearly an 8% drop in visitors through September 2025, raising alarms ahead of the holiday season. Airline and casino executives have appealed to Vice President JD Vance, warning that the post-Thanksgiving travel surge could collapse under pressure if the shutdown continues.

Air-traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration officers have gone unpaid, leading to staffing shortages and longer wait times at airports nationwide. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy cautioned that if the crisis lasts another week, “You will see mass flight delays. You will see mass cancellations. And you may see us close certain parts of the airspace because we just cannot manage it because we don’t have the air traffic controllers.”

Even minor airport disruptions have a cascading effect on gaming revenue, as reduced flight capacity discourages travel to destinations heavily reliant on tourism spending. International arrivals to Harry Reid International Airport were already down by more than 13% year-over-year in September, adding further pressure on hotel bookings and casino floors.

While Las Vegas has avoided major flight cancellations so far, airport officials warn that problems at other hubs can quickly spill over. Meanwhile, the U.S. Travel Association estimates the shutdown is costing the national travel industry more than $1 billion each week — a running total of $4.7 billion in losses since early October.

Casino Revenues and Prediction Markets Feel the Strain

The slowdown comes at a particularly critical time for casinos, which typically record their strongest quarterly performance during Thanksgiving and Christmas. Analysts caution that extended federal inaction could suppress both gaming and non-gaming revenue streams, including dining, live entertainment, and retail. Although many operators have diversified into iGaming and sports betting, physical casinos remain highly dependent on visitor foot traffic.

According to Sigma, tribal casinos face unique challenges, as some rely on federal grants and regulatory processes that have stalled amid the shutdown. While many can sustain operations independently for several months, those dependent on government programs face growing uncertainty.

The federal paralysis has also reached digital operators through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets — online platforms allowing users to wager on economic and political outcomes. With only one active commissioner and hundreds of staff furloughed, the CFTC’s oversight capacity has been sharply reduced.

Prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have gained traction during the shutdown, even partnering with the National Hockey League, while publicly listed sports betting giants Flutter and DraftKings have seen their stock values drop by 30% and 40% respectively since September.

Despite current turbulence, long-term indicators remain positive. The American Gaming Association reported that commercial gaming revenue reached a record $71.9 billion in 2024, driven largely by online and sports wagering growth. Still, casino executives warn that “each additional day of uncertainty represents millions of dollars in potential lost spending and a missed opportunity at the start of the holiday season.”