The American Gaming Association (AGA) expects Americans to wager $29.5 billion through regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season. The projection represents only a slight increase from the $29.4 billion recorded last season and signals a marked slowdown in the growth that has defined US sports betting since the federal ban was overturned in 2018.

The estimate includes preseason wagers, futures bets placed earlier in the year, the playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in March 2027. The AGA says the flat outlook comes as prediction markets increasingly offer contracts based on sporting events across the country.

AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said the regulated market has reached a different stage as these platforms gain ground.

“We’re excited for the NFL season to kickoff, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting had seen tremendous growth,” Miller said in a press release. “But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called “prediction markets,” the growth of legal handle has stalled.”

The slowdown has also appeared in broader sportsbook figures. According to the AGA, betting handle at US sportsbooks increased by 4% from September through May, compared with 14% growth during the same period a year earlier. Missouri was the only state to introduce legal sports betting during that period.

The regulated market’s relatively stable outlook comes alongside rapid expansion in prediction-market activity. Last football season marked the first period in which platforms such as Kalshi offered a large selection of sports-related markets.

Prediction Markets Gain Ground in NFL Betting

The AGA argues that prediction markets are competing with state-regulated sportsbooks while operating under a different regulatory framework. The association estimates that more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue has shifted toward prediction markets since 2025.

The age profile of some users has also become part of the debate. The AGA estimates that users between 18 and 20 accounted for approximately $5.1 billion of Kalshi’s volume. In 35 of the 40 US jurisdictions where sports betting is legal, that age group falls below the minimum age for regulated wagering.

Research from Optimove points to broader awareness among NFL bettors. A survey of 926 US NFL bettors found that 84% were aware of prediction markets, while 60% said they planned to trade, buy or sell event contracts during the year.

Trading activity could increase considerably during the current NFL season. Industry analysis cited in the material estimates that NFL prediction-market trading volume could reach $36.8 billion, approximately double the previous season’s level. Trading volume differs from traditional sportsbook handle because contracts can change hands multiple times.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming reported another indication of the rapid expansion. Its research found that NFL trading volume on prediction markets during August was 4.6 times higher than it had been in August of the previous year.

Miller has argued that the growing availability of sports contracts could make it harder for consumers to understand the regulatory distinction between prediction markets and licensed sportsbooks.

“These “prediction market” platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment,” Miller added. “Kalshi and other “prediction markets” say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”

The AGA says the regulated gaming industry supports 1.8 million jobs and produces roughly $18 billion annually in sports betting tax revenue. It has encouraged NFL fans to use state- and tribal-regulated operators and to distinguish licensed sportsbooks from prediction markets and illegal operators.

Legal Disputes Put More Pressure on Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are also facing challenges over their legal status. A federal appeals court recently ruled that Nevada could enforce its gaming regulations to prevent Kalshi from offering sports trading in the state. New Jersey has separately asked the US Supreme Court to examine the dispute over whether states can regulate prediction markets.

The NFL has raised concerns about some of the contracts available through these platforms. Sabrina Perel, the league’s chief compliance officer, addressed the issue in a letter to prediction-market operators.

“It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges,” Perel wrote.

The disagreement also involves different minimum-age requirements. Prediction markets allow customers aged 18 and older to trade, while regulated sportsbooks generally require customers to be at least 21 in most states.

The NFL’s concerns extend beyond regulation. The league has said certain markets could threaten the integrity of its competitions, adding another dimension to the dispute between prediction-market operators and established sports betting interests.

The AGA’s position comes as the NFL prepares for the opening of its 2026 campaign. The Seattle Seahawks are scheduled to host the New England Patriots on September 9, beginning a season in which legal sportsbook wagering is expected to remain close to last year’s level.

The $29.5 billion forecast therefore reflects more than a single annual estimate. It comes as the US betting landscape changes, with established sportsbooks facing slower handle growth while prediction markets attract increasing attention from sports bettors.

The AGA maintains that consumers should understand which regulatory protections apply to the platform they use. Its concerns center on the treatment of sports-related contracts, taxation and access among younger users, while prediction-market operators continue to face legal challenges in several jurisdictions.