Macau’s casino sector is poised for a short-term decline in gross gaming revenue (GGR) during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but analysts from Citigroup suggest the weakness could provide investors with opportunities in gaming stocks. The tournament, running from June 11 to July 19, features a significantly expanded format with 48 teams and 104 matches, potentially drawing more gaming budgets away from local casinos than in previous editions.

World Cup’s Immediate Effect on Gaming

Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau anticipate Macau GGR to fall by approximately 10 percent year-on-year in June and by 5 percent in July. They explain that historical trends show major football tournaments divert part of players’ wagering activity toward sports events, reducing daily casino revenues. During UEFA Euro 2024, for instance, Macau’s daily GGR dropped to MOP514 million (US$63.7 million), about 17 percent below the 2024 daily average of MOP620 million (US$77 million). Similar dips were observed during the 2018 FIFA World Cup and UEFA Euro 2016.

Despite the temporary reduction, Citigroup emphasized that Macau’s overall market fundamentals remain robust, and sector valuations are trading below historical averages. Analysts maintain a positive outlook for gaming stocks, viewing the near-term slowdown as a potential buying opportunity.

Post-Tournament Recovery Supported by Entertainment Calendar

A key factor in Macau’s anticipated rebound is the extensive post-tournament schedule of events. Choi highlighted that mid-July will feature major concerts and sports exhibitions designed to attract visitors and stimulate spending. Among the scheduled events are performances by K-pop groups Babymonster, TWS, and Enhypen, a concert by Taiwanese singer Zhao Chuan, and the NBA China Games with the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks.

“These high-profile non-gaming events should encourage a rapid return to positive GGR growth for the remainder of 2026,” Choi noted. Citigroup projects a 6.5 percent growth in GGR for the full year and 5.7 percent growth in the second half. The firm also reaffirmed top stock picks within the sector, including Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China, while maintaining buy ratings for Wynn Macau, MGM China, and Melco. SJM, in contrast, remains a sell.

Investor Implications and Strategic Opportunities

Choi and Chau described the situation as an “enhanced buying opportunity” for investors, noting that temporary softness in gaming revenues often coincides with attractive valuations. Macau gaming stocks are trading around 7.3 times forward enterprise value to EBITDA, below a long-term average of roughly 11.4 times. As reported by Inside Asian Gaming, this relative undervaluation, coupled with the city’s strong entertainment lineup post-World Cup, is expected to accelerate the recovery in both GGR and investor sentiment.

Citigroup’s analysis underscores that while major sporting events can momentarily suppress revenue, Macau’s diversified approach—including integrating premium non-gaming attractions—positions the city for a swift rebound. The brokerage remains confident that the combination of resumed casino operations, concert-driven tourism, and international sporting exhibitions will ensure the sector returns to growth by mid-2026.