Sports betting on Super Bowl LX is expected to remain massive by historical standards, yet new projections suggest the pace of growth is easing as the U.S. market enters a more mature phase. Analysts and industry researchers forecast legal wagering totals between roughly $1.5 billion and $1.75 billion for the Feb. 8 championship game between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. While that range would still mark the biggest betting day of the year, it reflects emerging pressures from limited market expansion, competition from prediction platforms, and a matchup that lacks the celebrity appeal of recent Super Bowls.

Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender, cited by Covers, estimates that sportsbooks will process about $1.5 billion in wagers, representing a modest 2% decline from last year. He attributes the pullback to structural factors rather than waning interest in the event itself. Missouri is the only state to have launched legal sports betting since the previous Super Bowl, limiting fresh sources of growth. At the same time, Bender expects sportsbooks to scale back promotional spending, which could help margins but restrain handle.

Another major driver in Citizens’ outlook is profitability. Last year’s Super Bowl produced an unusually strong 17% hold for sportsbooks, a level Bender does not expect to repeat. He projects a 35% year-over-year decline in operator revenue even if total wagering remains near record levels. App download data from the AFC and NFC Championship Games also showed little growth compared with the same period in 2025, though Bender noted that poor East Coast weather helped keep bettors at home and active.

Forecasts Point to Record Handle With New Constraints

A separate nationwide forecast from LSR paints a slightly more optimistic picture on handle, projecting $1.71 billion in legal wagers across the U.S. That estimate would extend an eight-year streak of Super Bowl betting records, dating back to the first post-PASPA reports in 2019. Even so, LSR characterizes the market as being at an inflection point, where expansion has largely run its course and alternative forms of sports speculation are beginning to chip away at traditional sportsbooks.

The Super Bowl typically accounts for about 1% of annual betting volume, roughly equivalent to three average days of activity. In 2019, only eight states contributed around $200 million in wagers. Betting crossed $500 million in 2021 and surpassed $1 billion in 2023. Last year’s total approached $1.5 billion across about 40 states and territories, though incomplete reporting leaves uncertainty around the final number.

This year’s growth outlook mirrors broader industry trends. With most states that were inclined to legalize already having done so, incremental gains have replaced the rapid expansion of earlier years. Missouri’s late-2025 launch will have limited impact, particularly given the Kansas City Chiefs’ absence from the playoffs.

State-Level Dynamics and the California Factor

New York is projected to lead all states in Super Bowl LX betting with an estimated $171 million in handle, according to LSR modeling. Although New York is the largest legal betting market in the country, it has never topped the Super Bowl leaderboard. New Jersey, which ranked first last year at $169 million, is forecast to slip to second place at $161 million amid slightly reduced local interest.

California looms large in the national picture despite lacking legal sports betting. As the host state, it would typically generate a surge in wagering, as seen in recent host years in Louisiana, Nevada, and Arizona. Instead, its absence removes that boost and underscores the reality that millions of Californians still have access to financial engagement through alternatives such as prediction markets and fantasy-style products. LSR estimates that a regulated California market could support at least $300 million in annual Super Bowl betting on its own.

Nevada, long associated with Super Bowl wagering, is expected to continue its gradual decline in relative importance. LSR projects $144 million in handle, citing softer tourism numbers, high costs for in-person viewing experiences, and reduced travel from neighboring states whose residents can now wager closer to home.

Prediction Markets and Changing Consumer Behavior

Both Citizens and LSR identify prediction markets as a growing source of competition. Federally regulated platforms operate nationwide, including in states without legal sports betting such as California and Texas. Bender wrote, “Prediction markets, already seeing impressive volume on the game, are creating some pressure in the legal market.”

Kalshi and Crypto.com were early entrants offering Super Bowl contracts in 2025. Since then, platforms including Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics have joined the space. Trading volume on Kalshi for this year’s game is nearing $150 million, though analysts caution that trading activity is not directly comparable to sportsbook handle.

The rise of these products adds uncertainty to forecasts, particularly around how much activity they divert from regulated sportsbooks. For now, LSR applies only a small downward adjustment to state projections, noting that prediction markets remain excluded from official betting totals.

Revenue, Props, and Long-Term Strategy

While handle attracts headlines, revenue remains the central variable for operators. Nationwide Super Bowl betting revenue is expected to exceed $100 million, assuming an average hold of at least 6%. The breadth of betting options, especially player props and parlays, plays a key role. LSR estimates that about a quarter of handle flows through parlays, with another quarter tied to futures placed earlier in the season.

The event also functions as a customer acquisition window. GeoComply tracked more than 700,000 new sports betting accounts during last year’s Super Bowl weekend. BetMGM Trading Manager Christian Cipollini emphasized the broader value of that exposure, saying, “We see a nice pickup in cross-sell between casino and sports betting when new or returning customers engage with our games,” and added, “Once they discover the entertainment value our product suite provides, they often become loyal players. So the big game is a special opportunity for the entire company.”

Taken together, projections for Super Bowl LX suggest a market that remains strong but increasingly complex. Record-setting totals are still likely, yet slower expansion, evolving consumer preferences, and new forms of competition are reshaping how sportsbooks measure success on the biggest betting day of the year.