The Macau government has revised its 2025 budget, adjusting its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast downward by 5%. Originally set at MOP 240 billion (US$29.7 billion), the new estimate for the year now stands at MOP 228 billion (US$28.2 billion). This adjustment was made after a reassessment of the economic situation and the gaming industry’s actual performance, which has not met the expected targets.

New economic forecast based on current GGR performance:

The revised GGR forecast is based on the gaming industry’s performance in the first five months of 2025, which has been underwhelming compared to earlier expectations. Between January and May, Macau’s GGR reached MOP 97.7 billion (US$12.1 billion), averaging MOP 19.5 billion (US$2.42 billion) per month, below the government’s initial target of MOP 20 billion (US$2.47 billion) per month. Given these figures, the government has amended its fiscal plans accordingly.

According to The Macau Post Daily, Secretary for Administration and Justice André Cheong Weng Chon explained during a press briefing that the revised GGR projection aligns with the current monthly average. As a result of this revision, the government has adjusted its expected fiscal revenue for 2025, now estimating MOP 116.6 billion (US$14.4 billion) in total revenue, down from the previously forecasted MOP 121.1 billion (US$15.0 billion).

In addition to the revenue adjustments, the government has also revised its expenditure plans for 2025. The amended budget includes a projected increase in spending, which now totals MOP 116.2 billion (US$14.4 billion), an increase of MOP 2.85 billion (US$353 million) compared to the original estimate. The primary reasons for this increase are higher allocations for subsidies to disadvantaged groups, as well as funding for the ongoing construction of the University of Macau’s new Hengqin campus, which has an estimated budget of MOP 7 billion (US$870 million) through 2030.

This increase in expenditure is part of the government’s efforts to support key public initiatives, including scientific and technological research and development, and to ensure the smooth implementation of its policies outlined in the 2025 Policy Address. The Hengqin campus, which is a critical infrastructure project for the University of Macau, will receive MOP 1.75 billion (US$217 million) in funding this year as part of the revised budget.

Macau’s gaming sector faces challenges amid global economic uncertainty:

The downward revision of GGR comes in the context of a wider economic slowdown, with global economic uncertainties affecting consumption patterns, particularly in the tourism and gaming sectors. In response to these challenges, analysts have noted that marketing efforts by casino operators in Macau are expected to ramp up in the second half of the year, which could boost GGR performance. According to Seaport Research Partners, Macau’s GGR is projected to grow by 4% year-on-year in 2025, with stronger growth expected in the latter half of the year.

Despite this, analysts have pointed out that Macau’s “base-mass” gaming segment, which includes local and day-trip visitors, has been slower to recover compared to the “premium-mass” segment, which is performing better. The weakness in the base-mass sector, particularly among overnight visitors, is one of the primary reasons for the revised GGR forecast.

The revised 2025 budget will now be sent to the Legislative Assembly for review and approval. Once passed, the new budget will guide the government’s fiscal policies for the remainder of the year. The government’s revised forecast aims to ensure that public administration functions effectively while also supporting key development projects, even as Macau navigates a more challenging economic environment.

The adjustment to the GGR estimate comes shortly after a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which halved its GDP growth forecast for Macau, citing ongoing global trade tensions and economic slowdowns in key markets such as China. Despite these challenges, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the sector’s long-term prospects, with expectations of modest growth in the coming years.