Macau’s gaming sector recorded its most successful month since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) for May 2025 hitting MOP 21.19 billion (USD 2.62 billion). The figure, released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), marks a 5% increase compared to May 2024 and stands as the strongest performance since January 2020. It also surpasses the previous post-pandemic high of MOP 20.79 billion from October 2024.

Hotel launches and the premium segment drive growth:

As reported by Macau Business, this surge came during China’s Labour Day Golden Week, which ran from May 1 to 5 and drew over 850,000 visitors to Macau. According to brokerage Seaport Research Partners, the favorable calendar, which included an additional Saturday and an early Dragon Boat Festival, played a major role in the GGR spike. Analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that “weekend days typically generate over 20 per cent more GGR than midweek days — for some operators, even more.”

Beyond seasonal factors, the soft opening of the Capella Macau hotel within Galaxy Macau added momentum, especially in the high-end segment. Reports from UBS and Citigroup indicated that the new luxury property attracted a surge in VIP traffic, with some estimating a 25–30% boost in VIP turnover. This led to an increase in average daily GGR, reaching MOP 686 million during the third week of May and lifting the monthly average to approximately MOP 700 million—an 11% rise over April.

The strong May figures prompted Citigroup to revise its forecast for the month from MOP 210 billion to MOP 212.5 billion, while HSBC placed its estimate between MOP 211 billion and MOP 217 billion. JP Morgan noted that the actual performance “comfortably” exceeded the adjusted consensus estimate of +2% year-on-year, with analysts DS Kim and Selina Li highlighting an 82% recovery versus pre-COVID levels. They estimated that mass market and slot revenues were at 120–121% of 2019 levels, while VIP revenues lagged at around 25%.

May’s performance represents a 12.4% increase from April’s GGR of MOP 18.59 billion. The combined April–May results also reflect sequential growth of 2% and defy the typical second-quarter trend of seasonal decline. JP Morgan stated that the second quarter of 2025 is likely to become “the first ‘non-miss’ quarter in quite some time,” with year-on-year growth between 2–3%.

Total GGR for the first five months of 2025 stands at MOP 97.7 billion, a 1.7% increase over the same period in 2024. However, the monthly average of MOP 19.54 billion still trails the MOP 20 billion monthly pace needed to hit the Macau government’s full-year forecast of MOP 240 billion.

Vitaly Umansky remains cautiously optimistic, projecting a 3.4% year-on-year rise for June but anticipating a 13.7% decline from May due to typical post-Golden Week seasonality and potential weather disruptions. He also emphasized the need for improved Chinese consumer confidence to sustain long-term growth.

Consumer sentiment and base mass remain key.

Despite healthy performance in the premium and mass segments, the base mass segment—representing lower-spending tourists and overnight visitors—continues to underperform. Current estimates place base mass GGR 17% below 2019 levels, with overnight visitation still under 70% of pre-pandemic volumes.

Umansky warned that full recovery depends on restoring broader consumer sentiment. “To drive real growth in 2025 and 2026, we need to see a significant recovery in base mass,” he said. “That hinges on confidence — people need to feel comfortable spending again.”

He added that recent green shoots in China’s economy signal potential improvement, but additional government stimulus may be necessary to drive meaningful change. China’s March policy shift emphasizing domestic consumption is viewed as a positive step, but analysts agree that more aggressive action may be required to restore momentum fully.

JP Morgan analysts noted that the competitive environment among Macau operators has remained relatively stable. High-end segments such as direct VIPs and super-premium mass have shown signs of equilibrium since the latter half of 2024. While some operators like Sands China have increased promotional efforts, analysts suggest this is part of a broader attempt to catch up, not an indicator of rising competitive pressure.

With continued tourism recovery, steady market conditions, and targeted marketing by operators, the outlook for the remainder of 2025 remains cautiously positive. Whether Macau can sustain this trajectory through the year will largely depend on maintaining VIP interest, stimulating mass market traffic, and hitting the benchmark of MOP 240 billion in annual GGR.