Macau’s latest fiscal planning documents outline a fresh set of expectations for the gaming sector in 2026, placing projected gross gaming revenue at MOP236 billion (US$29.43 billion). The estimate appears across the newly issued 2026 fiscal budget plan and reflects a modest but deliberate increase from the government’s revised 2025 forecast of MOP228 billion. That revision was introduced earlier this year after gaming revenue between November 2024 and April 2025 came in lower than initially expected.

Government Outlines Basis for 2026 Forecast and Budget Assumptions

In the fiscal documents submitted to the Legislative Assembly, the Macau government explained in detail why MOP236 billion was chosen as the central projection for the year ahead. As reported by GGRAsia, officials pointed to improved sector performance in recent months, especially from May through August, when casino GGR exceeded MOP20 billion for four consecutive months. The government highlighted this run of strong monthly figures as evidence that the recovery momentum is gradually stabilizing.

At the same time, authorities were careful to frame the projection within a context of caution. One section of the fiscal plan states that the forecast is set “based on the consideration of the external environment and economic uncertainties… and the principle of fiscal prudence.” The number will also act as the principal basis for next year’s public revenue calculations.

A similar message was included in the justification notes for the same budget plan. Officials noted that although tourist arrivals have shown solid growth and contributed to the broader economic recovery, the gaming sector in early 2025 still lagged behind earlier estimates. As a result, the government lowered its full-year 2025 GGR forecast from MOP240 billion to MOP228 billion via the June amendment law.

Tourism-Led Momentum Continues Into Late 2025 and Expected Into 2026

The fiscal plan describes multiple factors that contributed to this year’s acceleration in tourism and gaming activity. Visitor arrivals grew alongside large-scale concerts, holiday promotions, themed festivals, and international events designed to attract overseas travellers. Trade fairs and “tourism+” integration measures also helped reinforce Macau’s image as a diversified leisure destination.

The government expressed optimism that this upward momentum will extend into 2026. One part of the document states that the positive trend observed recently is likely to be sustained amid “various favorable factors.” A second source likewise noted that “From May to August, gross gaming revenue recorded approximately MOP$20 billion (US$2.5 billion) for four consecutive months, indicating a steady upward trend in the tourism and gaming sector.”

However, despite this confidence in the tourism-driven segments, the government acknowledged that other industries continue to experience strain. Small and medium-sized enterprises in traditional commerce remain under pressure, prompting the continuation of support measures first implemented in the 2025 fiscal year. These include targeted tax relief programs to support business upgrades and transformation efforts.

Gaming Tax Revenue and Junket Commission Taxes Detailed in Budget

Beyond projected GGR, the 2026 fiscal planalso includes specific expectations for tax revenue tied to the gaming industry. For next year, the government anticipates MOP92.53 billion in total gaming-related income. This includes MOP82.60 billion under the 35-percent “special gaming tax” applied directly to gross gaming revenue. When combined with additional statutory charges, the effective rate reaches around 40 percent. Taxes collected on commissions paid to licensed junkets are forecast at MOP150 million.

Similarly, the budget proposal summarised in the second source projects average monthly casino GGR of about MOP$19.67 billion in 2026, a figure that remains below the anticipated total for the current year but sits within analysts’ expectations of low single-digit growth. Between January and October, Macau recorded MOP$205.4 billion in GGR, marking an 8 percent year-on-year increase and keeping the city on track to meet or surpass its 2025 budget target.

As the Legislative Assembly prepares to review the 2026 budget, the government’s estimates position gaming as the central pillar of fiscal revenue once again, supported by a tourism sector that appears to be regaining strength while still operating against a backdrop of global economic uncertainty.