Hong Kong based brokerage Sanford C. Bernstein published a note claiming that approximately 52% of Macau’s December casino gross gaming revenue comes from mass market gambling. These numbers, according to the firm, were derived from unofficial industry returns.

As reported on GGRAsia, the note said that in December mass GGR accounted for more than half of the market GGR and explained that the figures were based on “Bernstein adjustments.” The brokerage pointed out that the adjustments were made in order to correct the distortion caused by reclassification related to smoking of premium mass gambling; the hub recently changed its attitude towards smoking in VIP areas of casinos.

It has to be noted that Macau’s government only publishes the split between mass market GGR and VIP baccarat GGR every quarter of the year; these reports are usually revealed soon after each quarter ends. The last such report dedicated on the three months to 30th of September showed that Macau’s casino revenue was 53% made of VIP gambling. This number is significantly lower than numbers of 60% and more seen during Macau’s best years.

According to the firm’s claims, the once gambling heaven witnessed a 35% drop ($1.1 billion) in adjusted VIP GGR for December y-o-y; nevertheless, the number has increased for 13% month-on-month, which shows a slight improvement. Junket rolling chip volume dropped for about 41% y-o-y.

Sanford Bernstein reported that the city’s mass market GGR for December was MOP9.5 billion; this number is for 11% better than November’s mass market GGR of MOP8.6 billion, but for 3% lower compared y-o-y.

In addition to Bernstein’s note, analysts Simon Zhang, Vitaly Umansky and Bo Wen stated that they notice “no near-term recovery in VIP principally.” The reasons for their opinion include the “continuation of the anti-corruption campaign in mainland China” and constrained junket liquidity.

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