The local branches of two prominent brokerage firms have reportedly predicted that August aggregated gross gaming revenues from the over 35 casinos in Macau will be below where they were for the same month last year.

According to a report, the revelations from Nomura Holdings Incorporated and Sanford C Bernstein and Company came after the former Portuguese enclave recorded a 3.5% drop year-on-year in aggregated gross gaming revenues for July to approximately $3.03 billion.

Daily decline:

Nomura reportedly used a Monday note to detail that Macau had recorded a daily average rate of about $92.91 million for the first four days of August, which represented a 5% deterioration month-on-month, while the impact of ‘a higher weekend mix’ had subsequently been offset by the sudden appearance of Tropical Storm Wipha.

Pessimistic prediction:

As such, the Japanese firm reportedly forecast that Macau is set to end the month with aggregated gross gaming revenues of between $3.09 billion and $3.22 billion, which would represent a decline of up to 5.8% year-on-year, to add to similarly disappointing comparable results seen for January, March, April and July.

Nomura gave the following statement…

“The about 0% to 5% year-on-year decline we estimate for August is roughly consistent with July’s minus 3.5% year-on-year change. However, we expect positive gross gaming revenue growth to resume in September, given much easier one-year growth comparisons.”

Calculated concurrence:

For its part, the Hong Kong-based office of Sanford C Bernstein reportedly used its own Monday note to declare that ‘the first four days of August started off poorly’ and that it now expects Macau to conclude August with aggregated gross gaming revenues of between $3.15 billion and $3.22 billion, which would signify a year-on-year decline of up to 4%.

Multiple roots:

GGRAsia reported that the advice from Sanford had additionally cited ‘low VIP volumes’ featuring normalized holds alongside ‘softer-than-anticipated mass’ as the main reasons behind its negative prediction although these were compounded by the ‘disrupted transportation’ surrounding Tropical Storm Wipha.

The company’s note read…

“Delivering positive growth in August would need to rely on outsized VIP volumes and higher hold; something not in our forecast. Additionally, we are beginning to see a negative impact from the protests in Hong Kong, which is causing some transport disruption and beginning to create a headwind to China visitation into Hong Kong and onward visitation into Macau.”