Global brokerage and investments firm, Morgan Stanley, has reportedly become the latest to envision hard times ahead for the casino industry in Macau after it lowered an earlier forecast concerning what it expects the enclave to record in aggregated gross gaming revenues for the twelve months to the end of December.
According to a report from GGRAsia, the financial services giant used a Monday filing to predict that Macau will now chalk up full-year aggregated gross gaming revenues of around $36.42 billion, which would represent a decline of 3% year-on-year, rather than the about $37.17 billion it had previously prophesied.
To make matters worse, GGRAsia reported that Morgan Stanley’s earlier twelve-month aggregated gross gaming revenues forecast for Macau had itself equated to a decrease of 1% year-on-year when measured against the just over $37.55 billion that was recorded for the entirety of 2018. But, it purportedly declared that such takings ‘have not bottomed’ regardless of the attractive valuations currently being applied to the stocks of several of the city’s most high-profile operators.
Looking even further ahead, it was predicted that aggregated gross gaming revenues in Macau for the whole of 2020 are now expected to grow by only about 3% to stand at approximately $37.51 billion, which is far below its earlier prediction that put this final twelve-month figure at something closer to $38.61 billion.
Stanley analysts, Thomas Allen and Praveen Choudhary, furthermore used the filing to predict that Macau will see negative comparable aggregated gross gaming revenues growth for November and December due in large part to an envisioned 17% drop off year-on-year in takings from VIP play. They purportedly also declared that this shortfall will materialize despite an anticipated 10% swell in mass-market business as this ‘could turn slower in the fourth quarter of 2019 to single digits.’