Macau’s casino sector recorded higher earnings in 2025, reaching its strongest annual performance since the Covid-19 pandemic, even as December revenue failed to meet seasonal expectations and showed a slight month-to-month decline.

Data released by Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau and cited by GGRAsia showed that gross gaming revenue for the full 2025 calendar year totaled MOP247.40 billion, equivalent to US$30.86 billion. That result represented a 9.1 percent increase compared with 2024 and marked the highest yearly tally since early 2020, when pandemic-related restrictions began to disrupt travel and gaming activity. Despite the improvement, the total remained below pre-pandemic levels, amounting to about 84.6 percent of the nearly MOP292.46 billion recorded in 2019.

December Ends the Year With Mixed Signals

The year concluded with a modest slowdown in December. Casinos generated MOP20.89 billion in gross gaming revenue during the month, translating to roughly US$2.61 billion. While this figure reflected a 14.8 percent increase from December a year earlier, it slipped 0.9 percent from November’s nearly MOP21.09 billion.

Market observers had anticipated a stronger finish to the year following a better-than-expected performance in November, with some industry analysts predicting that December could establish a new post-pandemic monthly high. That outcome did not materialize, and December instead delivered a result that was positive on a year-on-year basis but softer when viewed sequentially.

Deutsche Bank’s assessment of the December figures pointed to underperformance relative to historical patterns. In a note issued after the data release, the bank said December revenue came in below typical seasonal trends, showing a 90-basis-point sequential decline overall, or a 4.1 percent decrease when measured on a per-day basis. The bank added that although December revenue increased 14.8 percent from a year earlier, it remained 8.5 percent lower than the same month in 2019, underscoring the gap that still separates current results from pre-pandemic benchmarks.

Historical Comparisons and Recovery Pace

According to Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella, the December outcome contrasted sharply with long-term seasonal behavior. Between 2013 and 2019, the average change from November to December was a 70-basis-point increase. The latest result, therefore, stood roughly 480 basis points below that historical norm.

The December showing followed several months in which Macau’s gaming revenue consistently trailed 2019 levels. November revenue was 7.8 percent lower than in November 2019, while October and September lagged by 8.9 percent and 17.2 percent, respectively. Deutsche Bank said the December data suggested that recovery momentum may be stabilizing, albeit at a slower pace than traditional seasonality would suggest.

The bank also noted that December’s year-on-year growth rate fell short of its recent channel checks, which had indicated an expected increase of between 17 percent and 22 percent.

Government Forecasts and Analyst Outlooks

Despite the uneven monthly performance, the full-year result exceeded official expectations. In June, the Macau government lowered its 2025 gross gaming revenue forecast by about 5 percent, revising it to MOP228 billion from an earlier estimate of MOP240 billion. The final outcome surpassed that reduced projection by a wide margin.

Looking ahead, Macau’s 2026 fiscal budget plan, released in November, projected full-year casino revenue of MOP236 billion. Addressing lawmakers shortly afterward, Secretary for Economy and Finance Tai Kin Ip described the estimate as “prudent”, citing Macau’s exposure to developments in “international economies”.

Private-sector forecasts for 2026 remain cautiously positive. Deutsche Bank expects January gross gaming revenue of approximately US$2.53 billion, which would represent year-on-year growth of 10.9 percent. For the first quarter of 2026, the bank projects revenue of US$8.0 billion, up 10.6 percent, followed by full-year revenue of US$32.8 billion, an increase of 5.8 percent. Its longer-term estimate for 2027 stands at US$34.4 billion, implying 5.0 percent growth.

Drivers Behind 2025 Performance

Industry commentary highlighted factors supporting Macau’s recovery during 2025. Seaport Research Partners said recent gains were largely linked to activity in the VIP and premium mass segments, supported by sustained marketing efforts, player reinvestment, smoother money flows, and ongoing ease in visa issuance. These elements helped lift annual revenue despite the more subdued close to the year.

As Macau enters 2026, the record post-pandemic annual result underscores progress toward recovery, while December’s softer showing illustrates the challenges that remain in returning to historical norms.