The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has renewed its warning that the UK’s illegal gambling market represents a significant and growing risk, rejecting arguments that the issue is being overstated based on market share estimates.

BGC chief executive Grainne Hurst said the black market “is not a marginal issue,” responding to recent analysis suggesting illegal operators account for less than 10% of UK online gambling activity. While she did not dispute that figure, she rejected the idea that it reduces the urgency of the issue.

“Even if that figure is accepted, it should alarm everyone involved in this debate,” she wrote, arguing that even a relatively small share of activity represents meaningful consumer exposure to unregulated operators.

Research cited in the debate, conducted for the Campaign for Fairer Gambling and published via Gaming Compliance International, estimates the illegal sector generated around £800 million in gross gambling yield in 2025, compared with approximately £8 billion from regulated operators.

Dispute over market size and future growth projections

The disagreement in the sector is less about the baseline estimates and more about what they imply for policy. Campaigners arguing that the regulated market retains high channelisation rates suggest the UK’s illegal sector is relatively limited in global comparison.

However, Hurst and the BGC argue that any level of illegal activity represents a structural risk, particularly given projections for future growth. According to NEXT.io, data from H2 Gambling Capital estimates the UK’s illegal gambling market reached £17 billion in stakes in 2025, producing around £685 million in gross gambling yield.

The same modelling suggests this could rise sharply to more than £33 billion by 2028. Under that scenario, nearly one-fifth of all online betting activity could take place outside regulated channels.

Hurst warned this trajectory could significantly increase exposure to unsafe operators, highlighting that policy decisions made today will influence long-term market structure.

Consumer protection and regulatory pressure at the centre of debate

The BGC has framed the issue primarily around consumer safety and economic impact. Hurst stressed that regulated operators contribute through taxation, employment, and funding for sport, while illegal operators operate without oversight.

“One contributes to society through jobs, tax revenues and support for sport. The other simply extracts money from British consumers while avoiding responsibility,” she wrote.

The organisation also points to evidence of gambling-related harm while emphasising that it remains limited to a small proportion of users. NHS data from 2016 estimated problem gambling prevalence at 0.7% of adults, a figure the BGC continues to reference in its assessments.

At the same time, newer Gambling Commission data from 2024 suggested a higher rate of 2.7% based on the Problem Gambling Severity Index, illustrating ongoing disagreement over measurement approaches.

Regulatory bodies and policymakers continue to assess how to respond to the shifting balance between licensed and unlicensed gambling activity. The Gambling Commission has acknowledged that accurately measuring the size of the black market remains difficult due to inconsistent data and overlapping market factors.

Industry representatives argue that stricter regulation, higher taxation, and tighter affordability measures risk pushing consumers away from licensed operators. The BGC has specifically raised concerns that intrusive financial risk assessments and additional compliance measures could accelerate migration toward unregulated sites.

The Gambling Commission recently delayed its review of financial risk assessments after an inconclusive evaluation of evidence, signalling that further analysis is still required before decisions are made.

The BGC and other industry bodies argue that restricting the regulated market too heavily could unintentionally strengthen illegal operators by reducing visibility and pushing demand offshore.

“Banning prop bets does not eliminate the harm,” one industry submission noted in a related context, reflecting broader concerns that demand would persist even if regulated supply is reduced.

The Gambling Commission and government officials, however, continue to emphasise consumer protection and the need to balance market growth with harm reduction.