Prediction market platform Polymarket is facing increased scrutiny after investigators identified a cluster of accounts that reportedly earned millions from bets tied to military developments involving Iran.

According to findings shared by analytics company Bubblemaps, nine connected Polymarket accounts generated more than $2.4 million through wagers related to U.S. military actions and geopolitical developments connected to Iran. The activity included more than 80 bets and produced a reported 98% win rate.

Researchers said the trades coincided with several major wartime developments, including U.S. strikes, reports concerning Iran’s supreme leader, and a ceasefire announcement. Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman told CBS News’ 60 Minutes Overtime that the pattern stood out sharply from ordinary market behavior.

“This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,” Vaiman said. “Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.”

The report arrives as prediction markets continue to expand in popularity. These platforms allow users to wager on future events ranging from elections to economic developments and military outcomes. Industry observers say the rapid growth has introduced new concerns surrounding the use of nonpublic information.

Rob Schwartz, who previously spent 13 years at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, described the situation as a new regulatory challenge. “This is a new kind of insider trading,” Schwartz said.

War-Related Markets Draw Regulatory Attention

The report noted that more than $1 billion has been wagered this year on military outcomes and decisions. Analysts and investigators believe those markets present unique risks because sensitive information may circulate among government officials, intelligence personnel, military planners, service members, and even family members before public announcements occur.

A former U.S. military officer working with Bubblemaps under the alias “Deebs” said the number of individuals involved in military operations increases the possibility of information leaks. “And that means that there are, consequently, a lot of potential insiders,” Deebs said.

The United States prohibits military betting on platforms such as Polymarket, although users can reportedly bypass restrictions through tools like virtual private networks. CBS News highlighted the recent indictment of U.S. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who prosecutors accuse of using classified information to place bets related to an operation targeting former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Federal prosecutors alleged Van Dyke wagered roughly $34,000 and earned more than $400,000 from the trades. Authorities also claim he attempted to close his Polymarket account after withdrawing the profits. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to the charges.

Polymarket stated that it cooperated with law enforcement during the investigation. “The indictment of Gannon Ken Van Dyke is a demonstration of our commitment in practice. Polymarket identified the activity, referred it to authorities, and the system worked. Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified.”

Researchers from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective also examined military prediction markets and reported signs of what they described as “systemic insider-trading” tied to long-shot wagers. Their analysis focused on bets larger than $2,500 with winning odds below 35%.

Oil Market Trades and Threats Against Journalists

The broader investigation into market activity has extended beyond prediction platforms. CBS News reported that federal investigators are reviewing large oil futures trades made shortly before President Donald Trump announced progress in discussions involving Iran on March 23.

According to data cited from financial firm LSEG, traders placed more than $800 million on declining oil prices at approximately 6:50 a.m. ET that day. Fifteen minutes later, Trump posted on Truth Social that discussions with Iran had been “very good and productive.” Oil prices subsequently fell more than 10%.

Attorney David Kovel estimated that the traders behind those positions may have earned tens of millions of dollars. “We’re talking tens of millions, could be $80 million,” Kovel said.

When asked whether the trades could indicate insider trading, Kovel responded, “That’s a natural conclusion to draw. I can’t know it without knowing what happened, but it’s a natural conclusion to draw.”

The rise of war-related betting has also created security concerns for journalists. Emanuel Fabian told CBS News he received threatening messages after publishing an article concerning an Iranian missile strike near Jerusalem. Fabian later discovered that wagers on Polymarket depended on whether a missile would enter Israel on a specific date.

“One of them was, ‘You’re going to make us lose $900,000. And we’ll invest even more than that to finish you,’ is what he wrote,” Fabian said. “He also wrote details about my siblings as well. He said, ‘I know how often you visit your family.'” Fabian reported the threats to both police and Polymarket. The company later banned the accounts involved.

Oversight of prediction markets in the United States falls under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The White House also issued guidance in March reminding staff members that using nonpublic information in prediction markets may constitute a criminal offense.

Bubblemaps investigator Deebs warned that suspicious trading patterns tied to military events could create broader national security concerns. “Just to put it plainly, this could be putting people’s lives at risk,” Deebs said. “Other adversaries may be using this information in order to plan their own strategy.”