A January 22, 2019 survey conducted on behalf of and released by the American Gaming Association (AGA) found that out of every 10 American adults, one plans to wager on Super Bowl LIII between the AFC East’s New England Patriots and the NFC West’s Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

According to the survey (pdf) conducted by global technology and media company, Morning Consult…

  • Of the 22.7 million American adults who say they will bet $6 billion on the February 3, 2019, game scheduled to be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, 52 percent say their money will be on the Rams.
  • The remaining 48 percent will reportedly wager on the team that has appeared in the annual championship game of the National Football League (NFL) 11 times in franchise history, the most of any team in the league.
  • A full 1.8 million of those betting Americans plan to do so illegally via a bookie, and its likely that millions more will bet illegally through offshore online books, according to the survey.

Survey sample:

The interviews for the survey were reportedly conducted online among a national sample of 2,201 adults, with the data ‘weighted to approximate a target sample of Adults’ based on a number of non-identifiers including region, educational attainment, gender, race/ethnicity and age. Although greater among subgroups, the margin of error is +/- 2 percent.

Included in ‘bettors’ are those who expect to bet with a bookie, online, in a pool or squares contest, with a casino sportsbook, or casually with a friend.

Miller input:

Bill Miller, who was appointed president and chief executive officer of the AGA by its board of directors effective January 14, 2019, said…

“The interest in legal, regulated sports betting in the United States has never been higher. More Americans than ever before will be able to place their bets with legal sportsbooks now operating in eight states, generating valuable revenue for state, local and tribal governments and increasing fan engagement with the game.

“These results, however, also point to the continued viability of the dangerous, illegal sports betting market in America. It is more important than ever for jurisdictions to enact sound policies that provide a safe, legal alternative with protections for the nearly 23 million Americans who will place a bet on the big game.”

Sports betting post PASPA:

Since the May 14, 2018 overturning of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), a total of eight states have full-scale legalized sports betting, including New Jersey, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Delaware, while bills have been passed in Arkansas and New York, and 27 states have seen recent bills introduced but not passed.

Nielsen study:

A Nielsen Sports study commissioned by the AGA revealed that legalized sports betting could see the NFL take in $2.3 billion in annual revenue, due to legal, regulated sports betting being widely available.

The September 2018 report suggested that due to increased viewership and fan engagement, the NFL’s total annual revenue from ticket and merchandise sales, sponsorships and media rights could be boosted by 13.4 percent, generating some $1.75 billion in new revenue from greater ‘consumption of the league’s products.’

Dynasty a non-factor:

In related news, a separate national Morning Consult poll, conducted online January 24-28 among 2,201 US adults, found that the New England Patriots are the LEAST popular dynasty in four decades, as cited in a February 1, 2019 report from the Washington, DC-headquartered technology company.

According to crosstabulation results of the data collected, the Bill Belichick-coached team led by quarterback Tom Brady that is making its NINTH Super Bowl appearance in 18 years, shows that dominating the league for an extended period of time doesn’t guarantee the general public will love you.

The Patriots were the only team out of a list of 12 of the leading professional sports dynasties dating back to 1980 (tested in the survey), who at minus 1 point, scored negatively with the general public.

The dozen dynasties ranked in order of ‘net favorability’ include:

  • 1991-98 Chicago Bulls @ +30
  • 1980-88 Los Angeles Lakers @ +29
  • 2000-02 Los Angeles Lakers @ +24
  • 1984-90 Edmonton Oilers @ +23
  • 1981-86 Boston Celtics @ +21
  • 1999-2014 San Antonio Spurs @ +18
  • 2015-present Golden State Warriors @ +15
  • 1997-2012 Detroit Red Wings @ +13
  • 1993-96 Dallas Cowboys @ +12
  • 1996-2000 New York Yankees @ +11
  • 2010-14 San Franciso Giants @ +10
  • 2002-present New England Patriots @ -1

“beginning to wear thin”

Morning Consult, cited Director of the University of Southern California’s Annenberg Institute of Sports, Media and Society, Daniel Durbin, as saying, “The Patriots are a good team to boo.” He noted that the Patriot’s nearly 20-year perseverance was beginning “to wear thin on people.”

“The dynasty that is strong now is almost always going to be the one that is least favorable,” Durbin said. ”People have a more powerful rooting interest against them.”

Possible repeat:

Here’s a fun fact. New England’s dynasty began in February 2002, when the Patriots, who were massive underdogs at the time, beat the then St. Louis Rams, a.k.a. the “Greatest Show on Turf,” 20-17 in a nail-biter in Super Bowl XXXVI.

This writer predicts another relatively low-scoring, close game that could possibly see a Patriot’s kicker once again win the game in a last minute field goal.

As of late Saturday afternoon, Vegas has the Patriots listed as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 56.

The big game is being broadcast live at 6:30pm ET on CBS.