Genius Sports Lifts 2026 Revenue Forecast Above $1bn

Genius Sports has increased its full-year 2026 financial forecasts after reporting strong third-quarter revenue growth, higher adjusted EBITDA and $54 million in free cash flow. The sports data company also recorded its first quarterly operating profit as its expanded business continued to benefit from the acquisition of sports media company Legend and new agreements with leading prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket.

The group now expects 2026 revenue of between $1.015 billion and $1.035 billion, compared with its previous forecast of $1.005 billion to $1.025 billion. Its adjusted EBITDA projection has also increased, moving from a range of $285 million to $295 million to between $287 million and $297 million.

The revised guidance follows a third quarter in which group revenue reached $269.9 million, an increase of 62.3% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 156% to $87.1 million, compared with $34 million in the same period of 2025.

Genius reported $653.3 million in revenue for the first nine months of 2026, up 52.3% from $429 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA for the period increased 86.2%, reaching $163.7 million against $87.9 million in the corresponding period last year.

Chief Executive Officer and founder Mark Locke said the latest figures demonstrated the financial potential of the combined business.

“This quarter’s $54m of Free Cash Flow demonstrates the cash-generating power of the combined business and reflects the performance we always believed our model could deliver. Our predictable Betting business, expanding Media capabilities and growing opportunities in prediction markets position us to capture greater value from the data, technology and infrastructure we have spent 25 years building,” said Locke in the official press release.

Legend acquisition supports media business expansion

The Legend acquisition has played a substantial role in the company’s expanding media operations. Genius purchased the sports media business for $1.2 billion earlier in 2026, a transaction that initially prompted concerns among investors and contributed to a decline in its share price.

The latest results indicate that the acquisition has increased the scale of the group’s media operations, although the company continues to report a considerable net loss on a year-to-date basis.

Media Technology, Content and Services generated $116.9 million in third-quarter revenue, representing a 126% increase from the previous year. The division’s performance benefited primarily from the addition of Legend.

The Betting Technology, Content and Services business produced $153 million in revenue, up 33% year over year. Growth came from existing customer relationships, including higher prices negotiated through contract renewals, increased demand for additional services and expansion in established markets. New service offerings also contributed to the division’s performance.

The company’s broader financial position showed improvement in several areas. Genius recorded a third-quarter net loss of $15.7 million, compared with a loss of $28.8 million in the corresponding period of 2025. The $13.1 million improvement was partly attributable to lower stock-based compensation, which declined by $10.7 million to $15.2 million.

Stock-based compensation represented 5.6% of quarterly group revenue, down from 15.6% a year earlier.

Genius also reported its first-ever quarter of positive operating income. Income from operations reached $10.4 million, marking a $36 million improvement compared with the same period last year.

However, the company’s cumulative net loss for the first nine months remained higher than in 2025. It reached $147.9 million, an increase of 62% from $90 million in the previous year.

Kalshi and Polymarket partnerships expand prediction market presence

Genius Sports is placing greater emphasis on prediction markets as it seeks additional commercial opportunities from its sports data infrastructure.

During the third quarter, the company established partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the largest operators in the prediction markets sector. The agreements cover content, integrity services and marketing solutions, allowing both platforms to access services supported by Genius Sports’ existing relationships with sports leagues and federations.

The company also introduced Prediction.com, a dedicated platform that allows users to compare prediction market probabilities, event contracts and related insights.

These developments build on Genius Sports’ existing position as a data partner to major sporting organizations, including the English Premier League and the National Football League. The company aims to use the information and technology it has developed through these relationships to serve the expanding prediction markets sector.

Other commercial developments during the quarter included the implementation of Semi-Automated Offside Technology for Brazil’s Confederação Brasileira de Futebol. Genius also established an athlete-led media partnership with NBA All-Star Chris Paul and Words + Pictures.

A separate agreement with TelevisaUnivision will bring additional visual features, live match data and sponsorship opportunities to Liga MX broadcasts.

Cash generation strengthens outlook for remainder of 2026

Free cash flow was another important feature of the third-quarter results. Genius generated $54 million during the period, with a free cash flow conversion rate of 61%. Its adjusted EBITDA margin reached 32%.

The company expects its cash balance to stand at approximately $260 million by the end of 2026, with the forecast implying more than $100 million in free cash flow during the second half of the year. At the midpoint of its revised annual guidance, Genius expects an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.5%.

The company operates across sports betting technology, media services and data distribution. Its network includes more than 1,000 partners worldwide, among them the NFL, ESPN, the English Premier League, NCAA, CBS, DraftKings and FanDuel.