Data issued by the Macao Government Tourism Office on Sunday shows that nearly 812,500 tourists visited the former Portuguese enclave during the first six days of the ‘Golden Week’ public holiday. The figure indicating an increase in visitor tally by an average of 11.8 percent.

According to GGRAsia

A 12.1 percent year-on-year (YOY) decline in day six figures of the week-long public holiday brought down the average.

Official data:

The lion’s share of arrivals in the first six days of the October Golden Week holiday period were visitors from Mainland China at 83.3 percent, with approximately 677,000 in total, and an average year-on-year expansion of 18.9 percent.

The seven-day holiday usually leads to a significant spike in Macau’s tourism and aggregated gross gaming revenues (GGR) due to a large number of mainland tourists traveling to the city in order to enjoy its many casinos, shops and attractions.

However, according to investment analysts, no direct correlation exists between casino GGR in Macau and overall tourism arrivals. The reason being is reportedly due to the GGR in Macau’s market being typically slanted to high-end play.

Underwhelming expectations:

While expectations for Golden Week have been muted, for Oct. 1 to Oct. 2 Chinese arrivals in Macau swelled 27 percent from the previous year, according to the Macau Government Tourist Office, reports Bloomberg.

October 1st to the 7th was declared by China’s State Council as this year’s National Day holiday period. However, with the two days immediately beforehand, September 29 and 30, being weekend days this year, authorities reportedly anticipated some spillover in terms of visitorship.

Analysts are saying

Investment bank Morgan Stanley reportedly wrote in a Sunday note, “Golden Week visitation (first six days) from China was up strongly at 19 percent year-on-year, and VIP volume was up more than 10 percent year-on-year.

Analysts Thomas Allen, Jeremy An and Praveen Choudhary, stated, “Even though the last two days of Golden Week saw flattish visitation, junket VIP revenue was robust and up year-on-year.

However, it may not continue for the remainder of the month. We estimate October GGR growth to be 7 percent year-on-year and fourth quarter 2018 growth to be 6 percent year-on-year.”

According to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Margaret Huang, Macau’s October gaming revenue could for the first time since 2014 eclipse 28 billion patacas ($3.5 billion), aided by suppressed demand including by those who due to Typhoon Mangkhut stayed away.